Investing and Stocks Thread

[WeneedLumme]

31 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

This battery plant is pretty much a nuts and bolts investment, no? There is private capital involved. I understand that there is a North America bidding war going on for these types of investments. Easy for me to spout off when I don't know all the circumstances. I find it easier when Government provide research money into university development programs. Even then I would hope the tax payer is protected by repayment programs if commercial concepts are developed. 

 

My knee jerk reaction was for taxpayers who are already finding it very hard to make ends meet. Private capital will look for all the advantage they can get and asking for government handouts becomes automatic. Used to be that companies had to sell their ideas to private capital to raise the required money. 

When a company has many choices for where to put a plant, of course they will choose the location that appears likely to be the most profitable for them. And different governments will compete to land those economic activity generating plants. The problem comes in when governments don't do sufficient due diligence and commit large amounts of treasure to some venture largely because it sounds good and might buy some votes.

[chris12345]

23 hours ago, AatuD2 said:

I fully expect the Canadian banks to keep on tanking more over the next year, but I am slowly buying more and more of them. 

 

I also put a bit of money into an RBC 1 year 5.25% GIC. 

I like BNS at a 7% yield but am betting on further price drops.

 

Been wrong before though!

[chris12345]

8 hours ago, Boudrias said:

So the Liberals come to BC and announce a $1 billion investment in a battery plant. Not unusual since they have done the same in Ontario and Quebec. It stands as Canadian industrial development infrastructure I guess. A continuation of the multi decade public investment in a failed Auto Pact strategy.

 

My question is why are public taxpayer dollars being spent by politicians on capital investments that private capital should be funding? If the private sector cannot see a return on their invested capital then why should government provide that risk capital? Valuations in the green energy industry, which were trumpeted as the future, continue to crater. IMO a massive misallocation of public and private investment.  

It's a tough question for sure.

 

I'm guessing the government wants to move off "dirty" energy and there isn't a perfect solution yet so they want to push for anything green?

 

The plants generally aren't profitable so companies need motivation to execute the project.

 

But what do I know?

[AatuD2]

6 minutes ago, chris12345 said:

I like BNS at a 7% yield but am betting on further price drops.

 

Been wrong before though!

 

Haha me too... 

 

Hard to go wrong with a 7% dividend at the current price, especially if you're okay to hold onto the stock for 2-3 years. 

 

I fully expect to get a 7% dividend and have a chance to sell this back at the same price at least in a couple of years but.... I've been wrong before too haha 

[chris12345]

1 minute ago, AatuD2 said:

 

Haha me too... 

 

Hard to go wrong with a 7% dividend at the current price, especially if you're okay to hold onto the stock for 2-3 years. 

 

I fully expect to get a 7% dividend and have a chance to sell this back at the same price at least in a couple of years but.... I've been wrong before too haha 

Exactly.

 

I'm greedy though and am targeting 8+%. Not sure we'll see that.

[WeneedLumme]

5 minutes ago, chris12345 said:

I like BNS at a 7% yield but am betting on further price drops.

 

Been wrong before though!

Yeah, I've been overweight on BNS for a long time because of the yield and have regretted it. Many time there are good reasons why the yield is so high compared to it's peers. Like really smart guys who pay much closer attention to them than I do evidently feel that their price appreciation will not match their peers.

[nuckin_futz]

Crude oil plummets, hitting 5% drop

• WTI crude futures plunge below $73, reaching a low of $72.76, down close to 5% as demand concerns weigh. Year-to-date, oil price declines by 9.55%, down $16.80.

The price of WTI crude futures continues its decline with a move below the $73 level. It just traded to a low of $72.76 which took the price down close to 5% on the day.

The demand concerns are the catalyst today with initial jobless claims in continuing claims showing some tilt toward the weaker side.

 

The low for the year reached near $63.60. The high price for the year was at $94.99. The midpoint of that comes in at $79.30. For the year, the price is now down -9.55%, down $16.80

 

************

 

Down $23/barrel since late September.

[Colonel D]

Hey guys here is some free advice. If you are back in late 2020 and get your advise on SPACs from Wallstreetbets, save your money. It doesn't turn out well.

[Boudrias]

On 11/16/2023 at 2:34 PM, nuckin_futz said:

Crude oil plummets, hitting 5% drop

• WTI crude futures plunge below $73, reaching a low of $72.76, down close to 5% as demand concerns weigh. Year-to-date, oil price declines by 9.55%, down $16.80.

The price of WTI crude futures continues its decline with a move below the $73 level. It just traded to a low of $72.76 which took the price down close to 5% on the day.

The demand concerns are the catalyst today with initial jobless claims in continuing claims showing some tilt toward the weaker side.

 

The low for the year reached near $63.60. The high price for the year was at $94.99. The midpoint of that comes in at $79.30. For the year, the price is now down -9.55%, down $16.80

 

************

 

Down $23/barrel since late September.

Price drops and I add to my oil stocks. 

[nuckin_futz]

8 hours ago, Colonial Dee said:

Hey guys here is some free advice. If you are back in late 2020 and get your advise on SPACs from Wallstreetbets, save your money. It doesn't turn out well.

 

Pretty much what I was saying in late 2020.

[Boudrias]

The great Charlie Munger passed yesterday. He was an icon in his own right but let Buffet take the limelight. Last Berkshire AGM Munger was on stage and said he felt good and would likely last another 3 years. He died at 99. 

 

The Canadian connection to Berkshire is Greg Abel of Edmonton Alberta. He will be the CEO when Warren packs it in. Abel came to Berkshire thru Mid American when Berkshire bought that company. Berkshire has about $150 billion in cash ready to invest. 

[Darius]

On the old board there was an investment thread where posters discussed stocks, stock markets, investments, investing in general.  Thought I would start one up here.

 

Thoughts on 2024?

 

Seen lots of predictions of rate cuts in first half of 2024, both US Fed and in Canada.  Some of my Telco/Utility stocks have taken a beating this year due to the higher rates, im hoping they start to recover.

 

Dont know what to make of Banks stocks.   I was lucky to buy in a large position right after the Pandemic (May-Sept 2024) in three of the Banks.  With these high rates and a large number of mortgage renewals in the coming 2 years will we see more loan defaults, or will rate cuts ease the pain?

 

Crypto - Bitcoin halving coming up.  I know many investors dont like crypto, but I like to ride the sentiment sometimes.

 

GICs - instead of renewing is it time to allocate money into equities/bonds?

 

Edit: sorry ...i just noticed way down the list someone already started up an investment thread.  Apologies...mods can delete this 

 

 

 

Edited December 6, 2023 by Darius

[Mando27]

Thanks for the thread! I'm curious what are folks thoughts on WealthSimple's High Interest Cash Account. Is it worthwhile to get into?

[Boudrias]

32 minutes ago, Darius said:

On the old board there was an investment thread where posters discussed stocks, stock markets, investments, investing in general.  Thought I would start one up here.

 

Thoughts on 2024?

 

Seen lots of predictions of rate cuts in first half of 2024, both US Fed and in Canada.  Some of my Telco/Utility stocks have taken a beating this year due to the higher rates, im hoping they start to recover.

 

Dont know what to make of Banks stocks.   I was lucky to buy in a large position right after the Pandemic (May-Sept 2024) in three of the Banks.  With these high rates and a large number of mortgage renewals in the coming 2 years will we see more loan defaults, or will rate cuts ease the pain?

 

Crypto - Bitcoin halving coming up.  I know many investors dont like crypto, but I like to ride the sentiment sometimes.

 

GICs - instead of renewing is it time to allocate money into equities/bonds?

 

Edit: sorry ...i just noticed way down the list someone already started up an investment thread.  Apologies...mods can delete this 

 

 

 

The thread still exists on this forum. Just buried from lack of use. 
Thoughts on 2024

1) Debt is a big problem and we haven't seen the extent yet. Ask yourself who will buy government bonds in the volume required and especially if they cut rates?

2) I buy dividend yield on stocks that I think will not cut their payouts. 5 - 6% yield on dividends is solid. 

3) I hold 2 banks at 5% allocation each.

4) Crypto: I am from the Munger school. You have seen out right theft and fraud in this field. Why would anyone put a nickle in it? Always remember that Bitcoin has a very narrow ownership which makes it easy to pump or dump to the financial advantage of insiders.

5) GIC's at + 5% in TFSA or RRSP's are solid investments based on allocation.

[Super19]

Selling cash secured puts on stocks you'd like to own can be a way to generate some income. It comes with its risks, but it's an option (no pun intended).

[nuckin_futz]

The full statement from the December 2023 FOMC rate decision

• The FOMC keeps the target rate at 5.5%. End-of-year fed funds rate projection 4.6%

Powell: We're very focused on "not making that mistake" of holding high rates too long

• The most dovish comments from Powell so far

The Fed funds futures market is now pricing in 144 bps in cuts next year

• Big shift from after CPI

 

Pretty clear rates will not be going any higher. The market is pricing in steep cuts in rates over the next 12 months. Dow Jones trades to all time highs, Nasdaq and S&P not far behind. With rates set to drop in the future it seems all systems go for equities in the foreseeable future.

[Super19]

9 hours ago, nuckin_futz said:

The full statement from the December 2023 FOMC rate decision

• The FOMC keeps the target rate at 5.5%. End-of-year fed funds rate projection 4.6%

Powell: We're very focused on "not making that mistake" of holding high rates too long

• The most dovish comments from Powell so far

The Fed funds futures market is now pricing in 144 bps in cuts next year

• Big shift from after CPI

 

Pretty clear rates will not be going any higher. The market is pricing in steep cuts in rates over the next 12 months. Dow Jones trades to all time highs, Nasdaq and S&P not far behind. With rates set to drop in the future it seems all systems go for equities in the foreseeable future.

It can't be that easy, can it? Where and when is the pullback going to happen? It's a coming. I feel it in my bones. SPX nearing all time highs, just ~2% away. We shall see where the price rejects, should get a proper downside move.

 

The direction is clear now tho. It's up. And bull market always wins. These markets are designed to go up. Just be mindful where you buy. Not investment advice.

[Shift-4]

17 hours ago, nuckin_futz said:

The Fed funds futures market is now pricing in 144 bps in cuts next year

• Big shift from after CPI

 

Pretty clear rates will not be going any higher. The market is pricing in steep cuts in rates over the next 12 months. Dow Jones trades to all time highs, Nasdaq and S&P not far behind. With rates set to drop in the future it seems all systems go for equities in the foreseeable future.

 

Didn't mind looking at my portfolio this morning

[nuckin_futz]

9 hours ago, Super19 said:

It can't be that easy, can it? Where and when is the pullback going to happen? It's a coming. I feel it in my bones. SPX nearing all time highs, just ~2% away. We shall see where the price rejects, should get a proper downside move.

 

The direction is clear now tho. It's up. And bull market always wins. These markets are designed to go up. Just be mindful where you buy. Not investment advice.

 

Yes it can. Don't fight the Fed.

[AatuD2]

Started out by just going after Canadian banks in October since they were so low, then S&P eft, and now I'm buying Hydrogen fuel tech companies and looking at other stocks that have nothing to do with my original goal of staying in safer waters. 

 

Do you guys have a general strategy and actually stick to it, or do any of you treat it like an alternate form of gambling? 

 

Anyways I only play with stuff that I've been putting aside on top of my 6 months emergency fund, but I'm finding that it's easy to go astray psychologically when it comes to investing. 

[Boudrias]

9 hours ago, AatuD2 said:

Started out by just going after Canadian banks in October since they were so low, then S&P eft, and now I'm buying Hydrogen fuel tech companies and looking at other stocks that have nothing to do with my original goal of staying in safer waters. 

 

Do you guys have a general strategy and actually stick to it, or do any of you treat it like an alternate form of gambling? 

 

Anyways I only play with stuff that I've been putting aside on top of my 6 months emergency fund, but I'm finding that it's easy to go astray psychologically when it comes to investing. 

My rule of thumb is that if a company doesn't pay me to hold their stock then I don't buy it. OK, GOOGL & MSFT exempted. MSFT does raise it's dividend by + 10% per year. Even with a good divy I won't buy unless the company has a good moat and won't be replaced easily. So heavy on infrastructure and banks. Taking flyers on companies because the financial media is 'high' on them just isn't worth it. Look at the pot stocks. I also like to limit my number of stocks and spread them across the major sectors. A full weight is 5%. 

 

I'm generally not big on ETF's but admit that I use them in my TFSA. ETF's using a covered call strategy can pay out around 10% annually. You have to buy smartly as there is risk to capital but it does create a nice cash flow.  

[bishopshodan]

my ETF is on fire.

[AatuD2]

2 hours ago, bishopshodan said:

my ETF is on fire.

BSHD.TO ? 

[bishopshodan]

26 minutes ago, AatuD2 said:

BSHD.TO ? 

Bag holder?

[nuckin_futz]

14 hours ago, AatuD2 said:

Started out by just going after Canadian banks in October since they were so low, then S&P eft, and now I'm buying Hydrogen fuel tech companies and looking at other stocks that have nothing to do with my original goal of staying in safer waters. 

 

Do you guys have a general strategy and actually stick to it, or do any of you treat it like an alternate form of gambling? 

 

Anyways I only play with stuff that I've been putting aside on top of my 6 months emergency fund, but I'm finding that it's easy to go astray psychologically when it comes to investing. 

 

I've actively traded markets for a living for more than 2 decades. The stories I could tell you.

 

If you're actively looking for stocks that meet a certain criteria take a look at this scanner. https://finviz.com/screener.ashx

Edited December 28, 2023 by nuckin_futz