[Article] NHL Expansion: The Very Good Case for Why Toronto Should Get a Second Team

[King Heffy]

16 hours ago, IBatch said:

Is there really?   I think that an argument could be made that there was more skill in the 21-24 team era then there is now.   There still hasn't been a collection of centers around like Sakic was competing with in the 90's.

  And the power forward is nothing like it used to be.    Sure fast is a thing.   But even that, still haven't seen a group of all-stars skate as fast as Gartner's record setting time (as a 17 year old vet) year.   Games changed.   It is nice to see a group of D's putting up points, and delightful to see save percentages crater to mid 90's levels (hint a dozen guys skated a 13.5 lap either in the qualifiers or the actual event, including Hedican, who wasn't really that fast). .   Talent is finally catching up to expansion  - why keep going there?   Kind of like to see a cup one decade too. 

We also would have to see more refs hired with more teams. We don't have the influx of international refs to counter this, and it's clear that we already have a series officiating problem with career criminals like Sutherland being permitted to openly fix playoff games. We need to find a new source of qualified officials who are willing to conduct themselves like professionals.

[Coconuts]

17 hours ago, IBatch said:

Is there really?   I think that an argument could be made that there was more skill in the 21-24 team era then there is now.   There still hasn't been a collection of centers around like Sakic was competing with in the 90's.

  And the power forward is nothing like it used to be.    Sure fast is a thing.   But even that, still haven't seen a group of all-stars skate as fast as Gartner's record setting time (as a 17 year old vet) year.   Games changed.   It is nice to see a group of D's putting up points, and delightful to see save percentages crater to mid 90's levels (hint a dozen guys skated a 13.5 lap either in the qualifiers or the actual event, including Hedican, who wasn't really that fast). .   Talent is finally catching up to expansion  - why keep going there?   Kind of like to see a cup one decade too. 

 

Well, the Coyotes were sold for what.. 1.2 billion dollars? Any expansion team is probably paying at least that. So that's a pretty good incentive for current NHL owners, and there doesn't seem to be any shortage of interest in regards to expansion.

 

NHLPA won't vote against it either, more franchises means more jobs. It means more coaches, more scouts, more staff, more hockey news, more clients for agents. 

 

The only ones who'd probably really be against it are some hockey fans. 

[IBatch]

14 hours ago, Coconuts said:

 

Well, the Coyotes were sold for what.. 1.2 billion dollars? Any expansion team is probably paying at least that. So that's a pretty good incentive for current NHL owners, and there doesn't seem to be any shortage of interest in regards to expansion.

 

NHLPA won't vote against it either, more franchises means more jobs. It means more coaches, more scouts, more staff, more hockey news, more clients for agents. 

 

The only ones who'd probably really be against it are some hockey fans. 

I get the money part.   It's changed the game.   And get the exclusivity of it too.  Lots of billionaires looking for their big boy toys. 

[IBatch]

15 hours ago, King Heffy said:

We also would have to see more refs hired with more teams. We don't have the influx of international refs to counter this, and it's clear that we already have a series officiating problem with career criminals like Sutherland being permitted to openly fix playoff games. We need to find a new source of qualified officials who are willing to conduct themselves like professionals.

Going to two refs fucked the league.   They still have problems, but doubled the amount of guys who get a job.   How many times have we watched a "weak" call, just because the junior ref wants to do something and be in the game.  Or a missed call.   Or a bad call.    It added a body when some were thinking the ice should be widened (Burke led) to boost scoring (made some sense, bigger players then the 80's, why not?).   Plus the stuff players used to get away with when a head was turned was part of the game.   So was keeping the reffing fraternity from ballooning into epic proportions.    Every year part of the post season is some bad reffing.   It's always been that way, but now it seems commonplace.   It's all over the map.   

 

  Used to like getting certain refs calling our games, Paul Stewart used to just let the guys play, and only call a major or a minor that screwed with a scoring chance in a big way.    The players knew that if they got into the rough stuff Stewart would let them, sort of left it up to him.  Andy Van Hellomend, you knew he'd give you a fair shake.   Fraser, maybe a little more whistle happy, but was actually quite good, and well great hair.    Now I don't even try to remember these guys names.   Where as before you'd know six or seven and maybe groan a bit but at least get what type of game was going to be called.   

 

No way they'd go back, but they should.    You simply can't get the very best in the world anymore. 

Edited August 28 by IBatch

[King Heffy]

3 hours ago, IBatch said:

Going to two refs fucked the league.   They still have problems, but doubled the amount of guys who get a job.   How many times have we watched a "weak" call, just because the junior ref wants to do something and be in the game.  Or a missed call.   Or a bad call.    It added a body when some were thinking the ice should be widened (Burke led) to boost scoring (made some sense, bigger players then the 80's, why not?).   Plus the stuff players used to get away with when a head was turned was part of the game.   So was keeping the reffing fraternity from ballooning into epic proportions.    Every year part of the post season is some bad reffing.   It's always been that way, but now it seems commonplace.   It's all over the map.   

 

  Used to like getting certain refs calling our games, Paul Stewart used to just let the guys play, and only call a major or a minor that screwed with a scoring chance in a big way.    The players knew that if they got into the rough stuff Stewart would let them, sort of left it up to him.  Andy Van Hellomend, you knew he'd give you a fair shake.   Fraser, maybe a little more whistle happy, but was actually quite good, and well great hair.    Now I don't even try to remember these guys names.   Where as before you'd know six or seven and maybe groan a bit but at least get what type of game was going to be called.   

 

No way they'd go back, but they should.    You simply can't get the very best in the world anymore. 

Yeah, two refs are a bigger problem and it's compounded by the lower leagues doing the same.

[kettlevalley]

The reality of why the Toronto area doesn't have a second team is really just that "Toronto is in Canada".  

[N4ZZY]

As much as I'd hate to say it, Toronto could handle a 2nd team without a doubt.  But that also means twice the amount of annoying fans. Not sure I can handle that. 

 

[RWJC]

8 minutes ago, N4ZZY said:

As much as I'd hate to say it, Toronto could handle a 2nd team without a doubt.  But that also means twice the amount of annoying fans. Not sure I can handle that. 

 

On the flip side it would mean another fan base that hates the Leafs, which is always embraceable imho, hah

[Kragar]

On 8/26/2024 at 11:11 AM, Ballisticsports said:

With another team in Toronto, how could TSN find time in a show to  fit in coverage of all other teams, scores, recaps etc?

Your post implies that they show coverage for all the other teams now

[grumpyone]

this would be the only way that Toronto would win the cup.... it just wouldn't be the Leafs

[erkayloomeh]

Aren't the whole Ontario crazy hockey market leaf fans? Where are the fans going to come from on a new gta team. 

If they awarded a nhl franchise in surrey would you drop the Canucks? 

[Heretic]

Well, The Devils are only about 35 minutes from the Rangers who are about 35 minutes from the Islanders.

Mississauga is 42 minutes from the Leafs.

 

 

 

[Nucker67]

Well, the Leafs suck, so I can see why they want to try with another team. 

[IBatch]

11 hours ago, erkayloomeh said:

Aren't the whole Ontario crazy hockey market leaf fans? Where are the fans going to come from on a new gta team. 

If they awarded a nhl franchise in surrey would you drop the Canucks? 

Not really.   Once you get to Kingston you will start to find the Sens fans take over.   Maybe Trenton.  The Battle of Ontario  isnt as a big deal as Alberta, but it exists, and has only solidified the last 20 plus years since Alfie and the Sens faced off against the Sundin led, more stacked Leaf teams, and well 30 plus years of existence includes some generational stuff.  Kids don't grow up Leaf fans by default and get to choose.   The boomers had to pick the Habs or the Leafs prior to expansion ... sure it wasn't too hard to drop that and become a Canuck' fan. 

 

   The Sens draw on a market that matches all of  BC anyways.  And from arena to arena, driving dowtown TO to Kanata (a little closer), you can bet on a 6.5 hour drive average traffic.   Could be worse, wont be much better.     You can visit quite a few teams in a six hour range on the East Coast.   It's just got a lot of big cities, like CALI does on the West coast.    They'd be wise to do the second  team in Oshawa, but really they could do one on the West  side too.   the GTA is a long collection of Victoria/Kelowna plus sized cities outside its core,   on the East side especially, all accessed with their GO train.   Then the 401 widens from 12 - 18 lanes of traffic through it all.    In Canada thats 3 hockey markets easily (East to Niagra Falls, TO proper, West to Trenton).    The rest go to the Sens. 

 

As the Leafs go, of course they wouldn't want this.    ONT for sure could support another market.   The acccess is there via their GO train system.  

Edited September 8 by IBatch

[IBatch]

11 hours ago, Heretic said:

Well, The Devils are only about 35 minutes from the Rangers who are about 35 minutes from the Islanders.

Mississauga is 42 minutes from the Leafs.

 

 

 

Hamilton.  Oshawa.  All the stuff in between.  It would be like the entire lower mainland, right through the mountains and include Kelowna, pack in 8-9 million people in that space.   And PG would have a million people and another 2.5 million  to draw from  (Sens).    And then an additional 1-1.5 just floating around, not close to any team really. 

 

Id much prefer to axe 3 more US markets and put them in ONT and Quebec.    Not into any sort of expansion, 8 teams is more than enough per division,  6 was perfect, 7 a stretch.  Too many clubs missing close to or a decade plus  of playoffs these days.   DET is on 8 now.   Yikes, they started when we did, and look how much complaining on this site during the JB era "worst ever!"   Scoring us up, a bevy of new stars in all at once.   Why ruin that?

Edited September 8 by IBatch

[EastCoastExpress]

14 minutes ago, IBatch said:

Hamilton.  Oshawa.  All the stuff in between.  It would be like the entire lower mainland, right through the mountains and include Kelowna, pack in 8-9 million people in that space.   And PG would have a million people and another 2.5 million  to draw from  (Sens).    And then an additional 1-1.5 just floating around, not close to any team really. 

 

Id much prefer to axe 3 more US markers and put them in ONT and Quebec.    Not into any sort of expansion, 8 teams is more than enough.   6 was perfect, 7 a stretch.  Too many clubs missing close to or a decade plus  of playoffs these days.   DET is on 8 now.   Yikes, they started when we did. 

Canadian markets are worth more to the NHL than Bettman wants to admit.

Even when there are two teams like Nords/Canadians in close proximity, the true hockey market is fans of both.

Calgary fans watch Edmonton games. Edmonton fans watch Canucks games.

With 4 canadian teams in the playoffs this year, I bet the Cap goes up 6MIL next year on the profits.

Some Bean counter will figure it out.

If a Canadian team wins the cup the profits for the following years would double.

[Curmudgeon]

On 8/26/2024 at 11:11 AM, Ballisticsports said:

With another team in Toronto, how could TSN find time in a show to  fit in coverage of all other teams, scores, recaps etc?

 

Oh boy. More Damien Cox. More Steve Simmons. Even more Elliotte Friedman. Can hardly wait....

[Boudrias]

10 hours ago, IBatch said:

Hamilton.  Oshawa.  All the stuff in between.  It would be like the entire lower mainland, right through the mountains and include Kelowna, pack in 8-9 million people in that space.   And PG would have a million people and another 2.5 million  to draw from  (Sens).    And then an additional 1-1.5 just floating around, not close to any team really. 

 

Id much prefer to axe 3 more US markets and put them in ONT and Quebec.    Not into any sort of expansion, 8 teams is more than enough per division,  6 was perfect, 7 a stretch.  Too many clubs missing close to or a decade plus  of playoffs these days.   DET is on 8 now.   Yikes, they started when we did, and look how much complaining on this site during the JB era "worst ever!"   Scoring us up, a bevy of new stars in all at once.   Why ruin that?

Much of major sport finance does not register with hockey fans. Why was a USA investor interested in Utah and the $ in billions it took to get a team? Why were the NHL owners so excited to see that deal? My take was it was another twinning of the NBA and the NHL. The spin-off increase in all NHL teams happened on that deal. What is the future of the NHL? Sorry but it is not in third level locations like Quebec and the Maritime. 
 

What Canadian cities deliver in gate receipts is commendable but it is not the future of the NHL. The NHL has to compete for world class athletes and has to compete for investment $’s. That takes major markets and an ever increasing payroll CAP. I wouldn’t be surprised to even see a tiering system similar that world soccer uses and what some Euro hockey leagues use. 
 

More NHL teams in Canada? As much as I hate to say it the only team in Canada that fits the criteria I described above is the Laffers. IMHO the only other Canadian team that could reach that level is the Canucks. The weakest sister is Ottawa. When Canadian expansion is on the table it is in southern Ontario and the spin has to be off the Laffers. It might mean a relocation of the Sens. Such a move would allow an investment comfort level and an opportunity to share the media strength that exists in TO. Interesting, especially since a franchise worth would likely be worth $1.5 billion. I highly doubt an Ottawa franchise would survive such a scenario. 
 

All this is secondary to what I assume is the preferred expansion into the USA. Atlanta, Houston, Portland and even back to Arizona. 

[IBatch]

10 hours ago, EastCoastExpress said:

Canadian markets are worth more to the NHL than Bettman wants to admit.

Even when there are two teams like Nords/Canadians in close proximity, the true hockey market is fans of both.

Calgary fans watch Edmonton games. Edmonton fans watch Canucks games.

With 4 canadian teams in the playoffs this year, I bet the Cap goes up 6MIL next year on the profits.

Some Bean counter will figure it out.

If a Canadian team wins the cup the profits for the following years would double.

Nords/Habs rivalry was legendary.    It's good for hockey, and it's fun to watch.   For sure it would be amazing to see that again.   Quebec City isn't big enough for them I suppose.    The market.    I'd argue they don't compete with the other pro sports, and there's enough within a couple hours, to make the trip the same way Canucks fans across the province make time to visit Vancouver to watch live games too.    Maybe they will take notice...there are a few places in the US that struggle to keep butts in seats.   Raleigh if in Canada, would for sure have moved at some point ... FLD, well they won a cup but wonder how long it will take for fans to lose interest during their next down cycle.     There 6k regular attendance at times was pretty bad (and i'm sure snow birds are part of that as well, cheap tickets).    

 

Expansion should be done at this point.   Bettman seems to have this idea, the league should have 40 teams or something, which is just nuts.   9 per division is bad for the sport.   10 even worse.    They should be putting seed money into the grass roots level for sure, how long did we have to wait to see someone put up close to 150 points, and an NHL D break 100?   Way too long, and no it's not "goalies are worse today like they used to be".    Roy wasn't getting better just before he retired that's ludicrous, but was posting his best SP of his career.    Same with a pile of other goalies at the later stages including Mike Vernon (dead puck era).    They weren't better at 36-38.    The quality of competition went down, pads grew.    Not that interested in watching the NHL anymore if they continue to expand and we have to go through that pile of baloney again.    

[IBatch]

1 hour ago, Boudrias said:

Much of major sport finance does not register with hockey fans. Why was a USA investor interested in Utah and the $ in billions it took to get a team? Why were the NHL owners so excited to see that deal? My take was it was another twinning of the NBA and the NHL. The spin-off increase in all NHL teams happened on that deal. What is the future of the NHL? Sorry but it is not in third level locations like Quebec and the Maritime. 
 

What Canadian cities deliver in gate receipts is commendable but it is not the future of the NHL. The NHL has to compete for world class athletes and has to compete for investment $’s. That takes major markets and an ever increasing payroll CAP. I wouldn’t be surprised to even see a tiering system similar that world soccer uses and what some Euro hockey leagues use. 
 

More NHL teams in Canada? As much as I hate to say it the only team in Canada that fits the criteria I described above is the Laffers. IMHO the only other Canadian team that could reach that level is the Canucks. The weakest sister is Ottawa. When Canadian expansion is on the table it is in southern Ontario and the spin has to be off the Laffers. It might mean a relocation of the Sens. Such a move would allow an investment comfort level and an opportunity to share the media strength that exists in TO. Interesting, especially since a franchise worth would likely be worth $1.5 billion. I highly doubt an Ottawa franchise would survive such a scenario. 
 

All this is secondary to what I assume is the preferred expansion into the USA. Atlanta, Houston, Portland and even back to Arizona. 

The Sens don't need to re-locate.   Their team sucked, their arena not in a good location, yet they still kept going to watch the games.    There are a lot of US teams with historically worse attendance.    And it's not like it's a cheap game either (Sens). 

[Alflives]

6 minutes ago, IBatch said:

The Sens don't need to re-locate.   Their team sucked, their arena not in a good location, yet they still kept going to watch the games.    There are a lot of US teams with historically worse attendance.    And it's not like it's a cheap game either (Sens). 

Aren’t the Sens in the process of building a new rink in downtown Ottawa? 
The GTA could absolutely support another team, but it won’t be the Sens.

[IBatch]

17 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Aren’t the Sens in the process of building a new rink in downtown Ottawa? 
The GTA could absolutely support another team, but it won’t be the Sens.

They've never had an issue of 60-70% capacity.   Same with WNP (albeit a tiny small venue).   The US markets are the ones that struggle keeping butts in seats, even CHI and COL.   Raleigh and Miami big time over the years.   No matter how cheap the seats get (which they for sure aren't up here).   Canadians will pay the gate.     Canadian markets are somewhat immune to down cycles. 

Edited September 8 by IBatch

[Boudrias]

9 hours ago, IBatch said:

They've never had an issue of 60-70% capacity.   Same with WNP (albeit a tiny small venue).   The US markets are the ones that struggle keeping butts in seats, even CHI and COL.   Raleigh and Miami big time over the years.   No matter how cheap the seats get (which they for sure aren't up here).   Canadians will pay the gate.     Canadian markets are somewhat immune to down cycles. 

The point I was trying to make was that the money made won’t be as gate driven. Ottawa would be a distant third in Ontario if another team came into the TO orbit.

[IBatch]

11 hours ago, Boudrias said:

The point I was trying to make was that the money made won’t be as gate driven. Ottawa would be a distant third in Ontario if another team came into the TO orbit.

Maybe yep.   It's still the most gate driven sport, the TV deals are tiny compared to the big 3.   That's where the league would be wise to add another team in the GTA.   The Leafs wouldn't like it, their 3billion dollar brand would take a hit, they'd for sure lose some merchandising revenue.   No gate revenue though.    Oshawa Generals is an Ontario hockey factory, it's already a hockey mad market and if that Blackberry guy did get his wish, have no doubts they'd pack their building every home game.   They might not charge as much, if they did though, they'd be tops in the league.    As for gate revenue, playoffs matter ... each playoff game is worth a couple regular season ones on a sliding scale ... Some US teams they charge peanuts even with the exchange.     Florida for example, was sixth worst and went to the final in 2022-2023.   TO was second and made it to the second round (gate revenue).

 

 

Which is part of my point, there are many US teams that don't create a lot of revenue, in a revenue sharing cap era (players/owners).   Canuck's were middling, despite no playoffs.    It really should be, non-playoff teams don't make the extra cake.   But it isn't.   Canucks tied CAR, who made it to the conference finals.    And Raleigh had so little attendance for a stretch of years during their 9 seasons without a playoff appearance, that they had to start their antics post game to draw fans.    There was a time when Kane, Toews and Keith and Seabrook, went to malls in CHI (original six team), and gave out free tickets as a marketing campaign to get fans back to their games.   COL also is a fickle US market, and has also has had trouble keeping butts in seats, even in the Sakic era.    Maybe the NHL is trending towards better TV revenues, but so far it's been a struggle.   

 

 If the Sens  built a 19500k arena (that's about as big as they should be), with the extra ring of boxes, bet it wouldn't take long for them to become at least a middling earner, i'd bet more like a top ten earner.   Once they have a new arena, one that is where it should have aways been (instead Kanata is going downtown) they also will surge up the earning ranks.     Been there a lot, and can say it's about the silliest location you could imagine.   There is literally nothing to do once the game is over, and everyone drives to the games, downtown a lot of folks could make it on foot if they wanted, and would have an actual scene after the games.     Also agree, a second team in the GTA won't take long to become a top earner as well, and that the Sens likely would be the third wheel.   The Sens will still pull from a lot of towns outside of OTT...that make the games whether they are in Kanata or downtown.   Maybe it's an extra 15-20 minutes going East instead of West off the 416, that won't make a difference from fans coming in from 1-1.5 hours away. 
 

Same thing goes for CAL.    They need a new arena.   One that seats 19000 plus fans.   If the Oilers can be a top 3-4 earner, so can they. 

 

Id propose moving the Blue Jackets.   Buffalo kind of stinks too.  But they've been around too long.   Maybe CAR, if they can't be more then a low middling earner at the best of times, and i'm sure that Florida could also earn more too, and that their  fans might be quick to forget what just happened, the same as they were with CAR.   I'm 100% opposed to expansion.  100% ok with re-location from historically bad hockey markets.    Moving ARI was long overdue.    There are other markets that can help boost revenues.    WNP's little barn was maybe a mistake for them, but it sure felt good when Bettman made that announcement.     18259 seats collecting dust in Quebec City too...That's tragic considering the low revenue and attendance percentages that several US markets have historically dealt with.    If the league can't fill their arenas as is, they have zero business adding more.   Get it takes time in some markets.   UTAH will be interesting.  Seattle worked as did Vegas.   Vegas only major league sport.   UTAH has basketball.    COL, its struggles have been linked to competing for those dollars, if they've had issues,  won't be shocked to see UTAH having some too. 

Edited September 9 by IBatch

[Ghostsof1915]

14 minutes ago, IBatch said:

Maybe yep.   It's still the most gate driven sport, the TV deals are tiny compared to the big 3.   That's where the league would be wise to add another team in the GTA.   The Leafs wouldn't like it, their 3billion dollar brand would take a hit, they'd for sure lose some merchandising revenue.   No gate revenue though.    Oshawa Generals is an Ontario hockey factory, it's already a hockey mad market and if that Blackberry guy did get his wish, have no doubts they'd pack their building every home game.   They might not charge as much, if they did though, they'd be tops in the league.    As for gate revenue, playoffs matter ... each playoff game is worth a couple regular season ones on a sliding scale ... Some US teams they charge peanuts even with the exchange.     Florida for example, was sixth worst and went to the final in 2022-2023.   TO was second and made it to the second round (gate revenue).

 

 

Which is part of my point, there are many US teams that don't create a lot of revenue, in a revenue sharing cap era (players/owners).   Canuck's were middling, despite no playoffs.    It really should be, non-playoff teams don't make the extra cake.   But it isn't.   Canucks tied CAR, who made it to the conference finals.    And Raleigh had so little attendance for a stretch of years during their 9 seasons without a playoff appearance, that they had to start their antics post game to draw fans.    There was a time when Kane, Toews and Keith and Seabrook, went to malls in CHI (original six team), and gave out free tickets as a marketing campaign to get fans back to their games.   COL also is a fickle US market, and has also has had trouble keeping butts in seats, even in the Sakic era.    Maybe the NHL is trending towards better TV revenues, but so far it's been a struggle.   

 

 If the Sens  built a 19500k arena (that's about as big as they should be), with the extra ring of boxes, bet it wouldn't take long for them to become at least a middling earner, i'd bet more like a top ten earner.   Once they have a new arena, one that is where it should have aways been (instead Kanata is going downtown) they also will surge up the earning ranks.     Been there a lot, and can say it's about the silliest location you could imagine.   There is literally nothing to do once the game is over, and everyone drives to the games, downtown a lot of folks could make it on foot if they wanted, and would have an actual scene after the games.     Also agree, a second team in the GTA won't take long to become a top earner as well, and that the Sens likely would be the third wheel.   The Sens will still pull from a lot of towns outside of OTT...that make the games whether they are in Kanata or downtown.   Maybe it's an extra 15-20 minutes going East instead of West off the 416, that won't make a difference from fans coming in from 1-1.5 hours away. 
 

Same thing goes for CAL.    They need a new arena.   One that seats 19000 plus fans.   If the Oilers can be a top 3-4 earner, so can they. 

 

Id propose moving the Blue Jackets.   Buffalo kind of stinks too.  But they've been around too long.   Maybe CAR, if they can't be more then a low middling earner at the best of times, and i'm sure that Florida would also earn more too, and that their fans will be quick to forget what just happened, the same as they were with CAR. 

Winnipeg needs a 19500 seat arena. I've said that for years. Canada Life Centre holds only 15,321 seats, yet it's only 20 years old.