The Steady Decline of EP-11.6

[LaBamba]

 

Here’s a breakdown of Elias Pettersson’s performance before and after the 2023 All-Star break and including the playoffs:

Before the All-Star Break (2022-23 season):

    •    49 games played
    •    64 points (23 goals, 41 assists)
    •    Averaged 1.31 points per game
    •    Shooting percentage: 17.5%
    •    Pettersson was performing at an elite level, driving the Canucks’ offense and showing his playmaking ability.

After the All-Star Break (2023 regular season):

    •    31 games played
    •    31 points (16 goals, 15 assists)
    •    Averaged 1.00 points per game
    •    Shooting percentage: 13.9%
    •    His production slowed down slightly, but he was still effective in scoring and playmaking.

 

2024 Playoffs:

    •    13 games played
    •    6 points (1 goal, 5 assists)
    •    Shooting percentage: 4.5%
    •    Significant drop in scoring efficiency, with just 1 goal despite playing in all 13 playoff games. His playmaking continued but not at the same rate as the regular season   .

 

Start of the 2024-25 Season:

    •    3 games played
    •    1 assist, 0 goals so far, showing a slow start compared to his usual high standards.

 

For a player earning this much, production expectations are very high. Typically, players with similar contracts (around $11-12 million AAV) are expected to be top scorers, regularly posting 90+ points per season, and contributing significantly both offensively and defensively.

 

If you break down his decline in production, he really only hit a wall in his last 20 or so games offensively. When you actually watch him play however, he has never looked more fragile. 
 

if you had to drink a beer every time he fell down on the ice battling for the puck along the boards, you’d be blacked out drunk and throwing rocks at your own house by the second intermission. You can all cry all you want and call me a troll but something is broken in this player. 
 

It is common for elite scorers to have dead spots like this, but to suddenly become so seemingly disconnected is concerning to say the least.
 

At $11.6m EP needs to carry this offence. His decline has directly impacted the teams performance. It’s tied to the power play, it’s tied to offensive zone time, he is everything to this team offensively. 

 

[N4ZZY]

I understand how EP40 is the easiest target for criticism because he's the highest paid player. A part of me is worried about whether he has the mental strength and fortitude to actually deal with the constant noise surrounding his contract. If he can't, then that decline is going to continue, and I can see a trade happening inevitably. Either that, or management has to find a way to help him get back to his 'old' self. 

 

He can be dominant. I believe that it's less about his skills (the talent is there), but it's more between his ears. I'm hoping for a win tomorrow against the Panthers, and I hope EP40 gets a few points. Debrusk needs to get going as well. A lot of the top six haven't produced, but I can understand why Petey is the focus. But blame could be spread around too right.

[Goose]

Get Hoagie back on his wing lets GO

[DrJockitch]

He is usually a slow starter. 

[IBatch]

Didn't realize EP scored 95 points last year.  

[IBatch]

As a curiousity, wonder if the Sedins ever went through a similar funk while in their prime.    Don't think so.   My re-collection is they weren't players that would go on massive heaters and then lull's, just consistent.    Did Naslund during his five year peak?  Don't think so either. 

 

We've had other core players in the past do that for sure, Courtnall was a streaky scorer.    Bure was on close to a goal per game course one half, then scored "only" 20 the second half.   So for him at least, a funk of sorts.  

 

EP didn't have to sign a deal that big, i'm sure it wasn't the first offer (if it was shame on Allvin).    He'd earned himself a deal in the 10.5-11.5 territory after 1.5 years of scoring at a 95-100 point pace ... and seemed to have arrived.   His "funk" last year after the all-star break, was dialogued as the burden and distraction of not having a deal done.   This team was damned if we did and damned if we didn't, and the deal always needed to happen.   
 

Get it's concerning.   

[Ohthehumanity]

It could be the pressure of living in a hockey crazed market. I was a huge fan of him in the beginning and I looked forward to when he hit his prime, which should be now, but something is not right with this player. Either he is hurt, or it is a mental thing. He went through this after he signed his bridge deal, and I attribute that to missing training camp, but then he caught fire again. Will he do the same thing, or is the pressure too much, and maybe he needs to be in a market where nobody recognizes him off the ice?

Edited 14 hours ago by Ohthehumanity

[Attila Umbrus]

10 minutes ago, IBatch said:

As a curiousity, wonder if the Sedins ever went through a similar funk while in their prime.    Don't think so.   My re-collection is they weren't players that would go on massive heaters and then lull's, just consistent.    Did Naslund during his five year peak?  Don't think so either. 

 

We've had other core players in the past do that for sure, Courtnall was a streaky scorer.    Bure was on close to a goal per game course one half, then scored "only" 20 the second half.   So for him at least, a funk of sorts.  

 

EP didn't have to sign a deal that big, i'm sure it wasn't the first offer (if it was shame on Allvin).    He'd earned himself a deal in the 10.5-11.5 territory after 1.5 years of scoring at a 95-100 point pace ... and seemed to have arrived.   His "funk" last year after the all-star break, was dialogued as the burden and distraction of not having a deal done.   This team was damned if we did and damned if we didn't, and the deal always needed to happen.   
 

Get it's concerning.   

I think it comes down to how much he hates the media and the constant attention he gets.

 

He doesn’t look happy anymore. And I honestly think he doesn’t enjoy playing in Van anymore. 
 

At some point he needs to get comfortable with it like JT and Brock have or he’s gonna keep going this way. 
 

I feel like he’s put himself on an island and isolated himself a little bit…lonely enigmatic star island…

 

If he enjoyed playing here his energy would be way different in my opinion. He has barely played any games and his energy and confidence look sapped.

 

Mentally it’s a grind to play in Van with media and fan pressure. And I think he’s had enough of it.

 

He loves our team and I think he still loves our town. But everything else is just too much for him.

 

You can’t be a franchise center in a market like Van and not expect the attention.

 

I sure hope he gets his head out of the water and starts to be more positive. He looks miserable…

 

I love Petey but what made him special was his smile and his energy…it’s all gone now. He needs to get that back

[Drakrami]

For 11.6million less about points and more about leading the team to victory. When you have Kucherov, Marchand, Bergeron, Pastrnak, M Tkachuk, Barkov on your team, you can count on them to lead you into the playoffs and go far. These guys don't necessarily net 100 points. 

[Alflives]

[PeteyBOI]

This song is for petey

[I.Am.Ironman]

10 minutes ago, Drakrami said:

For 11.6million less about points and more about leading the team to victory. When you have Kucherov, Marchand, Bergeron, Pastrnak, M Tkachuk, Barkov on your team, you can count on them to lead you into the playoffs and go far. These guys don't necessarily net 100 points. 

 

True. We have to give it more than 3 games. That being said, he had that opportunity last year and didn't perform. In the playoffs last year the apologists were saying "guys he isn't making 11.6 this year, it's ok". Hopefully this year he performs up to the standard of a 11+M player. For a team to be successful you absolutely can not have an under performing 10+M player.

[Northern_Nuck]

32 minutes ago, I.Am.Ironman said:

 

True. We have to give it more than 3 games. That being said, he had that opportunity last year and didn't perform. In the playoffs last year the apologists were saying "guys he isn't making 11.6 this year, it's ok". Hopefully this year he performs up to the standard of a 11+M player. For a team to be successful you absolutely can not have an under performing 10+M player.

And most guys making 10+ are 1.1ppg+ … not .333ppg. 
 

 EP40 is making the kind of money that most 100pt+/year guys make, hopefully he can live up to that. 

[Eddie]

I think the word 'decline' is a little misleading here. While it's correct in the current context I think the bigger issue is season to season consistency.  

 

We have seen this with EP-40 since we drafted him, the long down spells either for entire seasons or for large parts of a season. 

 

It is frustrating for us fans, especially after the whole 'I want to Win' comments and then the 11.6M contract. I guess at this point you have to look at the contract AAV as a long-term thing. Comparing him to other players currently earning that much is just not a parallel at this point sadly. At the midpoint of that contract, the 11.6M is likely equivalent to around 8M today in % of cap terms. Which based on the current body of work is where his value actually lies unless he makes continued improvements, which we really haven't seen from him as a player yet since his first year in the NHL. 

 

Further to EP-40's continued poor personal form, I think there are 2 other major factors that are amplifying this : 

 

1. I think at this point the entire core is underperforming. Last year they came in early and ready. This year they look a step behind especially when playing other teams which all had a point to prove after last season. 

 

2. Having completely new linemates, none of who are a perfect fit for his line (arguably Debrusk who's form has also been questionable ). Due to the OEL buyout pain we are lacking a true quality player on this line as a winger. 

 

I think these are important factors as EP-40 isn't really the kind of player that can drive offense on his own, like Mcdavid, Drai, Mackinnon, and other players around his AAV. This is a pretty big reason that points to how his contract really looks overinflated from the get-go for me.   He also doesn't really seem to be able to lift average players on his line up either. He needs a very specific chemistry to perform. 

 

At this point, its early - we hope he can improve along with the rest of the core over the next 10 games and get back to 90+ point form, which I certainly think is possible as there is a great player in there. I'am super worried were gonna see a return of a 22/23 scenario. 

 

 

[Heretic]

I see people blaming his linemates, I'm sorry, this guy is the 5th highest paid player in the NHL this year - shouldn't matter who his linemates are - he should be the one elevating them - not the other way around.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brettknight/2024/10/09/the-nhls-highest-paid-players-2024/

As far as I'm concerned - his agent fleeced the Canucks.  He's worth like half of what he's getting.

Remember Anson Carter?  Most goals he ever scored in a season was when he played with the Sedins - he demanded higher pay - Canucks said no - and he faded out of the league - as it was only because he played with the Sedins that he looked great.  That's what Pettersson needs to do - make his linemates look great. 

So please stop with the excuses.  Stop blaming his linemates.  Stop blaming the coaches.  Stop blaming management.    

[luckylager]

He's a headcase and needs a shrink. All his bluster about wanting to play for a good team rings hollow AF when he's out there playing like a coward.

[Bounce000]

It all started as soon as D Petey signed with the Canucks. Ever since, he's been paranoid about there being 2 Elias Petterssons in the organization.

[Bob Long]

Waive his Swedish ass. 

 

Am I doing this right?

 

[TheMightyQuinns]

Too early to talk trade rumors?  25 year old PPG center is a rare commodity. Calls coming in from predatory GMs...

[Toni Zamboni]

i thought he had an injury at some point last year he was battling.
either way, you dont give up on a player of his calibre to hastily.
he will find his spark again.
this crowd was ready to unload Boeser during his slump as well so...

[TheMightyQuinns]

Just now, Toni Zamboni said:

i thought he had an injury at some point last year he was battling.
either way, you dont give up on a player of his calibre to hastily.
he will find his spark again.
this crowd was ready to unload Boeser during his slump as well so...

I agree. Need to wait until trade deadline in either case...

[Integra250]

My theory is D-Petey joined Abbotsford Canucks shortly after the ASG and perhaps with the addition of another Elias Pettersson, it someone sapped all of Petey's skills and energy. The Alien is slowly becoming the human form of himself.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[luckylager]

1 hour ago, Bob Long said:

Waive his Swedish ass. 

 

Am I doing this right?

 

He has one even strength goal since signing his fat contract. ONE

 

Somethings gotta give, Jimmy. The kid needs a shrink or a new team he can try and hold hostage under the guise of wanting to "be competitive".

[Bob Long]

Just now, luckylager said:

He has one even strength goal since signing his fat contract. ONE

 

Somethings gotta give, Jimmy. The kid needs a shrink or a new team he can try and hold hostage under the guise of wanting to "be competitive".

 

Nah. Kids got talent, it'll be fine. 

 

It's like crapping yourself when you kid goes through a temporary rough patch.

 

Big picture looks bright.

 

[luckylager]

3 minutes ago, Bob Long said:

 

Nah. Kids got talent, it'll be fine. 

 

It's like crapping yourself when you kid goes through a temporary rough patch.

 

Big picture looks bright.

 

We're not talking about a little rough patch, hanging with the wrong crowd, having the cops knock at the door to speak with them.

 

It's a pattern of behaviour which has been going on for almost 6 months. At that point, it becomes the new normal.