The Steady Decline of EP-11.6

[CaribouCanuck]

If it's been this long it's definitely more than just a slump, Doesn't mean he wont bounce back though. I'm hoping having Garland and Hoglander on his wings tonight will do some good as hopefully their super determined workhorse mentality will rub off on him. The only two things left that I can think of to get him going are having him with Garland and Hoglander or reuniting the lotto line just for like two or three games to see if giving him the best possible line mates will have him producing and give him a spark. 

[Bob Long]

12 minutes ago, luckylager said:

We're not talking about a little rough patch, hanging with the wrong crowd, having the cops knock at the door to speak with them.

 

It's a pattern of behaviour which has been going on for almost 6 months. At that point, it becomes the new normal. 

 

lots of guys go though injury and/or brain fart periods. I mean look at Myers, he sucked for all but last year 

 

Dunno, maybe I should be worried? I'm just not. Petey has some solid fundamental skills, it'll find its way back.

 

[Wall of Wonder]

Hopefully he can get his game back together soon.

[canucks curse]

Per frank seravalli the organization does not believe it’s physical 

 

maybe he has been going through some bad personal stuff 

it sure looks like he doesn’t live the game like he use to…

[Strawbone]

I do worry about Petey turning in to a perennial 70 point player. As others have said, the joy and confidence seems to be missing, and if he doesn't have that, he's still a skilled hockey player but not the franchise center we all thought he could become. Not to be a Debbie Downer, but this could turn out to be a very expensive mistake of a contract. I sure hope I'm wrong.

[NHLer]

16 minutes ago, canucks curse said:

Per frank seravalli the organization does not believe it’s physical 

 

maybe he has been going through some bad personal stuff 

it sure looks like he doesn’t live the game like he use to…

He reminds me of me after my breakup. Maybe he needs some extra action off the ice ya know... 

[Johnny]

5 hours ago, IBatch said:

Didn't realize EP scored 95 points last year.  

Right

 

The way people talk about and trash him youd think he only got 65

[JayDangles]

12 hours ago, LaBamba said:

 

Here’s a breakdown of Elias Pettersson’s performance before and after the 2023 All-Star break and including the playoffs:

Before the All-Star Break (2022-23 season):

    •    49 games played
    •    64 points (23 goals, 41 assists)
    •    Averaged 1.31 points per game
    •    Shooting percentage: 17.5%
    •    Pettersson was performing at an elite level, driving the Canucks’ offense and showing his playmaking ability.

After the All-Star Break (2023 regular season):

    •    31 games played
    •    31 points (16 goals, 15 assists)
    •    Averaged 1.00 points per game
    •    Shooting percentage: 13.9%
    •    His production slowed down slightly, but he was still effective in scoring and playmaking.

 

2024 Playoffs:

    •    13 games played
    •    6 points (1 goal, 5 assists)
    •    Shooting percentage: 4.5%
    •    Significant drop in scoring efficiency, with just 1 goal despite playing in all 13 playoff games. His playmaking continued but not at the same rate as the regular season   .

 

Start of the 2024-25 Season:

    •    3 games played
    •    1 assist, 0 goals so far, showing a slow start compared to his usual high standards.

 

For a player earning this much, production expectations are very high. Typically, players with similar contracts (around $11-12 million AAV) are expected to be top scorers, regularly posting 90+ points per season, and contributing significantly both offensively and defensively.

 

If you break down his decline in production, he really only hit a wall in his last 20 or so games offensively. When you actually watch him play however, he has never looked more fragile. 
 

if you had to drink a beer every time he fell down on the ice battling for the puck along the boards, you’d be blacked out drunk and throwing rocks at your own house by the second intermission. You can all cry all you want and call me a troll but something is broken in this player. 
 

It is common for elite scorers to have dead spots like this, but to suddenly become so seemingly disconnected is concerning to say the least.
 

At $11.6m EP needs to carry this offence. His decline has directly impacted the teams performance. It’s tied to the power play, it’s tied to offensive zone time, he is everything to this team offensively. 

 

Where did you get these numbers??

In the final 31 games of the 2023 season Pettersson only posted 24 points in 31 games, NOT 31 points.

 

[JayDangles]

1 hour ago, Bob Long said:

 

lots of guys go though injury and/or brain fart periods. I mean look at Myers, he sucked for all but last year 

 

Dunno, maybe I should be worried? I'm just not. Petey has some solid fundamental skills, it'll find its way back.

 

If the team was still winning, or at the very least had an above .500 record since Petterssons "slump" I wouldnt be too worried. We would be managing and be optimistic for how good we would be when he rebounds.

However the team has had a rough record if you look at the All Star game to now. Considering this, I'm much more worried about how Pettersson's slump is impacting the team, and our overall winning percentage.

[Bob Long]

Just now, JayDangles said:

If the team was still winning, or at the very least had an above .500 record since Petterssons "slump" I wouldnt be too worried. We would be managing and be optimistic for how good we would be when he rebounds.

However the team has had a rough record if you look at the All Star game to now. Considering this, I'm much more worried about how Pettersson's slump is impacting the team, and our overall winning percentage.

 

That's fair.I'll probably start being concerned if we are still outside the playoffs by late November.

[HKSR]

1 hour ago, Strawbone said:

I do worry about Petey turning in to a perennial 70 point player. As others have said, the joy and confidence seems to be missing, and if he doesn't have that, he's still a skilled hockey player but not the franchise center we all thought he could become. Not to be a Debbie Downer, but this could turn out to be a very expensive mistake of a contract. I sure hope I'm wrong.

If this contract is a mistake, any hope of a Cup with this core is out the window.  As it is, we're wasting the top value years of Hughes and Miller right now.

[Strawbone]

10 minutes ago, HKSR said:

If this contract is a mistake, any hope of a Cup with this core is out the window.  As it is, we're wasting the top value years of Hughes and Miller right now.

 

Agreed, and I really hope I'm wrong. Petey used to get me out of my seat with some of the audacious plays he made, and his one-timer on the power play was lethal. I want that Petey back. I guess I'm concerned because he should be getting better and more consistent as he hits his prime years. I won't really be worried unless this "slump" lasts for the entire season.

[Ghostsof1915]

In 405 games, he's scored 412 points. Averaging over a point a game. (Regular season only) 

I agree it's alarming that he doesn't seem to be enjoying himself like he used to.  

Maybe Daniel and Henrik need to have a frank discussion with him and just make sure he gets back on track. 

 

[Heretic]

2 hours ago, Bob Long said:

 

lots of guys go though injury and/or brain fart periods. I mean look at Myers, he sucked for all but last year 

 

Dunno, maybe I should be worried? I'm just not. Petey has some solid fundamental skills, it'll find its way back.

 

This is exactly why I am in favour of a pay for performance instead of agents saying "This guy is as good as that guy so you have to pay him this much".

 

[TheMightyQuinns]

5 minutes ago, Heretic said:

This is exactly why I am in favour of a pay for performance instead of agents saying "This guy is as good as that guy so you have to pay him this much".

 

Yup. I would adapt NFL style negotiations where no contract is guaranteed.

[Coconuts]

5 minutes ago, TheMightyQuinns said:

Yup. I would adapt NFL style negotiations where no contract is guaranteed.

 

NHLPA would never go for that though, I doubt even a lockout would have them giving up their guaranteed contracts 

[Rekker]

Man it's tough being a Canucks fan. Spanning five different decades, ffnn cursed for most of it. Will always stay true, watch every game, pom poms. But frig. Would of made finals last season if Demko and EP healthy and playing well. Would be cup favorites this season or reining champs if those two were going full send. Just tough sometimes. 

[rychicken]

I am a conspiracy theorist - he's being extorted for money and it's impacting his game

[flat land fish]

Maybe Petey is the ultimate troll and is playing at 80% capacity to screw with neurotic internet chat board members who hate on excellence.

[TheMightyQuinns]

9 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

 

NHLPA would never go for that though, I doubt even a lockout would have them giving up their guaranteed contracts 

True. If anything, the NFL will lean more towards fully guaranteed contracts. Hello Mr. Watson...

[Bob Long]

26 minutes ago, Heretic said:

This is exactly why I am in favour of a pay for performance instead of agents saying "This guy is as good as that guy so you have to pay him this much".

 

 

That would make a big difference.

[Kevin Biestra]

7 hours ago, IBatch said:

As a curiousity, wonder if the Sedins ever went through a similar funk while in their prime.    Don't think so.   My re-collection is they weren't players that would go on massive heaters and then lull's, just consistent.    Did Naslund during his five year peak?  Don't think so either. 

 

We've had other core players in the past do that for sure, Courtnall was a streaky scorer.    Bure was on close to a goal per game course one half, then scored "only" 20 the second half.   So for him at least, a funk of sorts.  

 

EP didn't have to sign a deal that big, i'm sure it wasn't the first offer (if it was shame on Allvin).    He'd earned himself a deal in the 10.5-11.5 territory after 1.5 years of scoring at a 95-100 point pace ... and seemed to have arrived.   His "funk" last year after the all-star break, was dialogued as the burden and distraction of not having a deal done.   This team was damned if we did and damned if we didn't, and the deal always needed to happen.   
 

Get it's concerning.   

 

I also remember the Sedins as consistent.  Consistently underwhelming to start their careers game after game and year after year, then consistently good, then for a couple years consistently great, and then back to consistently good.  Steady Eddies for the most part.

 

Kirk McLean was also remarkably consistent throughout a season.  Not always the same level from year to year...was magnificent in 1988-89. 1991-92 and 1992-93 (and 1994 playoffs) but also temporarily lost his starting job to both Troy Gamble and if I remember right Corey Hirsch.  But consistent throughout his career, also regained it as opposed to Luongo-esque pouting when Schneider and then Lack unseated him for a game or two or three.

 

What I remember is that in the early 90s both Linden and especially Ronning would come flying out of the gates to start the season.  At the 15-20 game mark, Cliff Ronning would be up there leading the league with Gretzky and Lemieux...and I would think holy cow he is going to reproduce his Italian League numbers in the NHL.  But then they would both come down to earth and just be very good a la Kirk Muller or Glenn Anderson.  But like Babych (and as I have said, Richard Brodeur and Smyl) they would both be Hall of Famers had they been the #3-to-6 guy on a dynasty team like the Oilers or Islanders.  I was going to say the Lemieux Penguins too but in that case, history or at least the HOF seems to have smiled not too kindly on Rob Brown, Kevin Stevens and even our main man Rick Tocchet (as opposed to Kevin Lowe, Clark Gillies etc.).  They are getting the John Tonelli treatment.  Lemieux really doesn't help people into the HOF with him for whatever reason...his linemate in junior set unbelievable records (or his numbers would have but for Lemieux himself and his numbers) and that guy wasn't even drafted in the late rounds.  I think history has probably never considered any hockey player such a one man show as Mario.

 

 

Edited 8 hours ago by Kevin Biestra

[EternalCanuckFan]

I think it's still too early to be majorly concerned about EP. It's obviously not great that EP hasn't been anywhere near as productive as one would expect for $11M+ AAV, but he's had an offseason to train and his struggles on offense are not unique to him - the whole team is struggling.

 

If the whole team was gunning and it was only EP who was struggling, then I would have more concern right now.

 

All I want to see at this point is some signs of life from EP and, frankly, the rest of the team. Keep things simple and direct - don't try to get too pretty and out skill other teams. Use superior skill to play a simple and direct game better than the other teams.

[TheMightyQuinns]

8 minutes ago, EternalCanuckFan said:

I think it's still too early to be majorly concerned about EP. It's obviously not great that EP hasn't been anywhere near as productive as one would expect for $11M+ AAV, but he's had an offseason to train and his struggles on offense are not unique to him - the whole team is struggling.

 

If the whole team was gunning and it was only EP who was struggling, then I would have more concern right now.

 

All I want to see at this point is some signs of life from EP and, frankly, the rest of the team. Keep things simple and direct - don't try to get too pretty and out skill other teams. Use superior skill to play a simple and direct game better than the other teams.

AKA: JT Miller style! It's miller time tonight!

[AnthonyG]

I’m going to go out on a limb and say EP gets hot within the next 10 games and doesn’t slow down.

 

2020-21 - 2.56 points per 60 - injured and missed time. and was last minute to training camp

 

2021-22 - 1.60 points per 60 - pointless 24 of the first 42 games - caught fire and went on an absolute tear down the stretch. Barely missed playoffs 

 

2022-23 - 3.05 points per 60 - was at camp early and took off running and never looked back

 

2023-24 - 2.54 points per 60 - at camp early, was on an a tear again up until health took a hit. Played through it at a pretty decent rate of point production

2024-25 - was his offseason set back due to recovering? Was he up and running early enough to get into that rhythm years prior where his off season wasn’t affected? Lack of pre-season games attributed to his lack of production and slow start out of the gates?

 

seems like a well oil machine that needs to be finely tuned and ready to roar before the season starts. Could this be the calm before the storm?