Ovi watch/prediction thread.

[Dumb Nuck]

20 hours ago, Alflives said:

OV is cooked. Too much Vodka and not enough training. 

Ovi is on a roll:

 

61

[wai_lai416]

ovechkin always been streaky and now he's on a streak again 4 in 4.. realistically he only needs to hit around 25 this season to have a shot..prolly would have already surpassed it if not for the lockout shortened season and the 2 covid shortened season

[Coconuts]

Ovi seems to have woken up a bit

[Dumb Nuck]

Ovi overtook Gretzky for the most empty net goals at 57.

[Dumb Nuck]

60

[Miss Korea]

We were gloating about his poor form all year and this is how he punishes us

[wai_lai416]

i still think ovechkin will break the record if washington actually get some decent player/playmakers.. ovi is having an off season.. but look at that roster. they have 0 quality players.. ovechkin is the leading scorer.. they have no one capable of setting him up.. they have literally turned into a defensive team trying to grind out wins. ovechkin is literally 2nd on his team behind carlsson for assist.. who's setting him up? no one lol

[Elias Pettersson]

Ovi has been reduced to empty net goals, some power play goals and some goals off deflections. 
 

It’s sad to see that he will break the record in this fashion. But I guess he will play along until it is done. Hopefully he does it sooner rather than later so he doesn’t have to put us through a long winded Gretzky tour for the next 4 years. 

[Dumb Nuck]

20 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Ovi has been reduced to empty net goals, some power play goals and some goals off deflections. 
 

It’s sad to see that he will break the record in this fashion. But I guess he will play along until it is done. Hopefully he does it sooner rather than later so he doesn’t have to put us through a long winded Gretzky tour for the next 4 years. 

Hmmm, I thought you were gonna ask "Will Ovi ever score a goal against the Canucks again?"

[Bob Long]

I hope he doesn't break the record.

[Coconuts]

The Caps, as a team, are a very low offense group. Some of that is Ovi, some of Ovi is that team. That being said, Ovi still leads his team with 36 points in 36 games. He's followed by Strome with 35. Caps as a whole have five players with 20 or more points. 

 

Caps need more puck distributors, the impact of the loss of Backstrom on Washington's overall offensive game cannot be emphasized enough. His shooting percentage, 7.8%, is also uncharacteristically low. Ovi still shoots a fair bit. 

 

Caps rank 30th in goals, 28th in shots on goal, 28th on the powerplay, 29th in shooting percentage, and they're 27th at faceoffs. It's not just Ovi, his entire team struggles. 

 

If the Caps can get their offensive game back to even closer to middle of the pack over the next few seasons Ovi probably doesn't have a problem breaking the record. Bring in a playmaking center or give him a playmaking winger and he likely sees a jump in production. Caps may need to buy out or pay to dump Oshie in order to accomplish this. Mantha's cap clearing up could also allow them to fit such a player. 

 

Kuznetsov getting back closer to his career averages would also help, but he's enterting a contract year so he may very well do so. 

 

Mittelstadt could be a player they could poke around.

Edited February 12 by Coconuts

[IBatch]

15 hours ago, Coconuts said:

The Caps, as a team, are a very low offense group. Some of that is Ovi, some of Ovi is that team. That being said, Ovi still leads his team with 36 points in 36 games. He's followed by Strome with 35. Caps as a whole have five players with 20 or more points. 

 

Caps need more puck distributors, the impact of the loss of Backstrom on Washington's overall offensive game cannot be emphasized enough. His shooting percentage, 7.8%, is also uncharacteristically low. Ovi still shoots a fair bit. 

 

Caps rank 30th in goals, 28th in shots on goal, 28th on the powerplay, 29th in shooting percentage, and they're 27th at faceoffs. It's not just Ovi, his entire team struggles. 

 

If the Caps can get their offensive game back to even closer to middle of the pack over the next few seasons Ovi probably doesn't have a problem breaking the record. Bring in a playmaking center or give him a playmaking winger and he likely sees a jump in production. Caps may need to buy out or pay to dump Oshie in order to accomplish this. Mantha's cap clearing up could also allow them to fit such a player. 

 

Kuznetsov getting back closer to his career averages would also help, but he's enterting a contract year so he may very well do so. 

 

Mittelstadt could be a player they could poke around.

Maybe if Ovi didn't take so much money, there would be some left to upgrade a player.   They are in the same part of their cycle we were with the Sedins final four year deal.   Past the hope stage really.   

Edited February 13 by IBatch

[Coconuts]

8 hours ago, IBatch said:

Maybe if Ovi didn't take so much money, there would be some left to upgrade a player.   They are in the same part of their cycle we were with the Sedins final four year deal.   Past the hope stage really.   

 

Perhaps, but while I'm a big Sedin's fan the accomplishments are a bit different

 

They've already begun tweaking the team but they'll do their best to get him there 

Edited February 13 by Coconuts

[IBatch]

9 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

 

Perhaps, but while I'm a big Sedin's fan the accomplishments are a bit different

 

They've already begun tweaking the team but they'll do their best to get him there 

Yes.   Feels like this year will be their 2014 attempt.    They for sure are looking around the corner.   At what's next, and that will need to include some bad seasons, same as it was for us.    Their core for sure is "stale" at this point.    Maybe they do better than an LE type signing.   

Edited February 13 by IBatch

[Kevin Biestra]

Jeez Louise another one, this guy means business now.  Seems like he wants to go on some kind of prime Corey Perry goal scoring run for the second half and steal the Hart Trophy.

 

[Coconuts]

He's heating up, good sign

[Dumb Nuck]

59

[Bobby Lou]

Man Ovi is starting to really heat up. F@$%!!!   

Edited February 14 by Bobby Lou

[Diamonds]

I guess Ovechkin had a good All-Star break. He seems to have realized the season has started now.

 

Scoring a goal six games in a row is impressive no matter who you are.

[IBatch]

12 hours ago, Coconuts said:

He's heating up, good sign

-17 on the year.   Some empty net goals.  Some PP goals.    Playing first line minutes he's behind, Sam Lafferty.  Let that sink in for a minute.  Our 9th best goal scorer of the year, who's had some spot duty in the top six.   Mostly 4th line minutes.  Is ahead of Ovi's 8 EV strength goals playing close to 20 minutes a game.   Think the hero worship needs to slow down a bit.    Even if he's having an on streak, he's a shadow of his former self.    Hoglander has 17 so far this year.    Playing mostly in the bottom six.     Again, Ovi is like Dave Andreychuk/Hull sort.   He's his own guy.   He's no Gretzky, Bossy or Bure.   He's just a shooter man.  A very good one.   With longevity.   Gartner was about blazing speed and moves.  Ovi is and always has been, about shooting the puck at the net.   Button mashing rapid fire.  Plus some extra.   His peak wasn't that special, he's the Mike Rechhi of goal scoring.    Gretzky, Mario  different level, Bossy too.   Then Hulls and Ovi.    Glad he's scored a few.   Doubt he keeps it going. 

[IBatch]

12 hours ago, Kevin Biestra said:

Jeez Louise another one, this guy means business now.  Seems like he wants to go on some kind of prime Corey Perry goal scoring run for the second half and steal the Hart Trophy.

 

Nope.   He's just trying to catch up to Lafferty and a bunch of other plugs at even strength.  Probably getting tired of getting asked when he will score another goal.   

[Coconuts]

 

 

[Kevin Biestra]

5 hours ago, IBatch said:

 

Nope.   He's just trying to catch up to Lafferty and a bunch of other plugs at even strength.  Probably getting tired of getting asked when he will score another goal.   

 

Probably has a picture of Lafferty on the corner of the mirror like in Rocky 2.

[Sp3nny]

5 hours ago, IBatch said:

-17 on the year.   Some empty net goals.  Some PP goals.    Playing first line minutes he's behind, Sam Lafferty.  Let that sink in for a minute.  Our 9th best goal scorer of the year, who's had some spot duty in the top six.   Mostly 4th line minutes.  Is ahead of Ovi's 8 EV strength goals playing close to 20 minutes a game.   Think the hero worship needs to slow down a bit.    Even if he's having an on streak, he's a shadow of his former self.    Hoglander has 17 so far this year.    Playing mostly in the bottom six.     Again, Ovi is like Dave Andreychuk/Hull sort.   He's his own guy.   He's no Gretzky, Bossy or Bure.   He's just a shooter man.  A very good one.   With longevity.   Gartner was about blazing speed and moves.  Ovi is and always has been, about shooting the puck at the net.   Button mashing rapid fire.  Plus some extra.   His peak wasn't that special, he's the Mike Rechhi of goal scoring.    Gretzky, Mario  different level, Bossy too.   Then Hulls and Ovi.    Glad he's scored a few.   Doubt he keeps it going. 

Well since we are picking apart stats and doing player comparisons, let’s dive into the “Great One” and how he finished his career.
 

Gretzky’s last five seasons he averaged 19.8 goals a season and was a minus player in 4 out of 5 seasons, all while playing top line minutes (this actually wasn’t tracked until the last two seasons, in which he still averaged 21 mins a night). Let that sink in for a minute. He was a shadow of his former self. Even with this being a terrible season, Ovi is still pacing for more goals than Gretzky’s last five seasons.

 

Do we compare Gretzky to the “fourth liners” who had better seasons at the time? No, we just care about the body of work overall, and how great he truly was. He is the greatest player of all time, and nobody can take that from him. But the fact that a player has a chance to break his goals record is nothing short of monumental.

 

No, Ovi isn’t better than Gretzky. Like you say, he has always been a volume shooter with an incredible shot. Not much has changed about that to this day, he’s just not getting the puck as frequently or shooting as often. He’s playing on the one of the worst Caps teams of his career (scoring wise on pace for their 3rd lowest goal total since Ovi has been around), shooting his career worst % wise, and his age is definitely catching up to him. But, he’s shot 8% before in 2011 and “only” scored 32. He followed it up by returning to his normal shooting % of 12.5 the next season. I don’t see why that couldn’t happen again. And even if it doesn’t, if he plays another five yrs averaging 20 goals as Gretzky did, is it rly all that different? Sure, Gretzky still put up more points, but this isn’t a points discussion. Saying Ovi should immediately retire after his lowest goal scoring season seems a bit much. Gretzky didn’t hang them up until he couldn’t crack the double digit barrier.

 

I think the hero worship of him should pick up a bit. Peak Ovi was an absolute freak of nature with much more than just a shot. His speed and raw power made him nearly unstoppable. But by far, his shot is his greatest asset. Everyone knows where he stands, everyone knows to cover him, the goalies know the shot is coming, and time and again he puts the puck in the net. We are talking about a player breaking a nearly untouchable record. I think too many view it as a disservice to Wayne, rather than the incredible feat that it is.

Look at prime Matthew’s right now. He’s is actually pacing better than Ovi on a G/GP basis, so he technically has a shot at it. If I were to tell you that Matthew's would also break Gretzky’s record, would you believe it? He has to average 41.6 goals over the next 12 yrs just to match pace perfectly with Ovi at the same age. Unfortunately, he has actually only scored more than 42 goals three times in his eight yrs in the league because of injuries/shortened seasons. Can he honestly do it? Maybe, maybe not; but it’s a very steep hill to climb. Ovi has already climbed 93% of that hill, which is astonishing.

 

Even if he doesn’t get there, what Ovi has done should be regarded as the truly elite of goal scorers. What he has done for the modern NHL is astounding, and I am all for it. It doesn’t take away from Gretzky’s legacy, it builds on it.

[Kevin Biestra]

1 hour ago, Sp3nny said:

Well since we are picking apart stats and doing player comparisons, let’s dive into the “Great One” and how he finished his career.
 

Gretzky’s last five seasons he averaged 19.8 goals a season and was a minus player in 4 out of 5 seasons, all while playing top line minutes (this actually wasn’t tracked until the last two seasons, in which he still averaged 21 mins a night). Let that sink in for a minute. He was a shadow of his former self. Even with this being a terrible season, Ovi is still pacing for more goals than Gretzky’s last five seasons.

 

Do we compare Gretzky to the “fourth liners” who had better seasons at the time? No, we just care about the body of work overall, and how great he truly was. He is the greatest player of all time, and nobody can take that from him. But the fact that a player has a chance to break his goals record is nothing short of monumental.

 

No, Ovi isn’t better than Gretzky. Like you say, he has always been a volume shooter with an incredible shot. Not much has changed about that to this day, he’s just not getting the puck as frequently or shooting as often. He’s playing on the one of the worst Caps teams of his career (scoring wise on pace for their 3rd lowest goal total since Ovi has been around), shooting his career worst % wise, and his age is definitely catching up to him. But, he’s shot 8% before in 2011 and “only” scored 32. He followed it up by returning to his normal shooting % of 12.5 the next season. I don’t see why that couldn’t happen again. And even if it doesn’t, if he plays another five yrs averaging 20 goals as Gretzky did, is it rly all that different? Sure, Gretzky still put up more points, but this isn’t a points discussion. Saying Ovi should immediately retire after his lowest goal scoring season seems a bit much. Gretzky didn’t hang them up until he couldn’t crack the double digit barrier.

 

I think the hero worship of him should pick up a bit. Peak Ovi was an absolute freak of nature with much more than just a shot. His speed and raw power made him nearly unstoppable. But by far, his shot is his greatest asset. Everyone knows where he stands, everyone knows to cover him, the goalies know the shot is coming, and time and again he puts the puck in the net. We are talking about a player breaking a nearly untouchable record. I think too many view it as a disservice to Wayne, rather than the incredible feat that it is.

Look at prime Matthew’s right now. He’s is actually pacing better than Ovi on a G/GP basis, so he technically has a shot at it. If I were to tell you that Matthew's would also break Gretzky’s record, would you believe it? He has to average 41.6 goals over the next 12 yrs just to match pace perfectly with Ovi at the same age. Unfortunately, he has actually only scored more than 42 goals three times in his eight yrs in the league because of injuries/shortened seasons. Can he honestly do it? Maybe, maybe not; but it’s a very steep hill to climb. Ovi has already climbed 93% of that hill, which is astonishing.

 

Even if he doesn’t get there, what Ovi has done should be regarded as the truly elite of goal scorers. What he has done for the modern NHL is astounding, and I am all for it. It doesn’t take away from Gretzky’s legacy, it builds on it.

 

In Gretzky's second and third last seasons he still led the league in assists.  Of those five years, he had 102, 97 and 90 points.  His two "okay" seasons were underachieving with 48 points in 48 games in the shortened year following the 1994 labor dispute and then really coming down to earth with 62 points in 70 games his final year.  He was finally no longer a point a game player and it wasn't going to get better but rather worse from that point forward and he knew it.

 

That said...if he was leading the NHL in assists in back to back years, of course he should be getting first line minutes.  He was a minus player mostly in those last five years, but over that period the Kings, Blues and Rangers that he played for mostly sucked.  When he did make the playoffs with the Rangers in one of those final years...ten goals in 15 playoff games and another 10 assists.

 

Anyway I think we all agree Ovechkin is great.  I've never seen anyone better at promising 40-55 goals year in and year out like clockwork.  But I've also never seen anyone who promised you 70 to 90 goals yearly like Gretzky at the height of his prime.

 

 

Edited February 14 by Kevin Biestra