Ovi watch/prediction thread.

[Sp3nny]

14 minutes ago, Kevin Biestra said:

 

In Gretzky's second and third last seasons he still led the league in assists.  Of those five years, he had 102, 97 and 90 points.  His two "okay" seasons were underachieving with 48 points in 48 games in the shortened year following the 1994 labor dispute and then really coming down to earth with 62 points in 70 games his final year.  He was finally no longer a point a game player and it wasn't going to be get better but rather worse from that point forward and he knew it.

 

That said...if he was leading the NHL in assist in back to back years, of course he should be getting first line minutes.  He was a minus player mostly in those last five years, but over that period the Kings, Blues and Rangers that he played for mostly sucked.  When he did make the playoffs with the Rangers in one of those final years...ten goals in 15 playoff games and another 10 assists.

 

Anyway I think we all agree Ovechkin is great.  I've never seen anyone better at promising 40-55 goals year in and year out like clockwork.  But I've also never seen anyone who promised you 70 to 90 goals yearly like Gretzky at the height of his prime.

I agree with you wholeheartedly, and I wasn’t trying to paint Gretzky in a bad light, the guy was still putting up 100 pt seasons which is insane. I was just thinking of how we can interpret the “shadow of his former self” as a statement more than anything. Is a shadow of Gretzky’s former self the fact of scoring 90 points when in the past he scored 90 goals? I guess it just shows how amazing prime Gretzky was, but it also demonstrates a severe drop off from peak, while still being incredible.

 

I think the thing that impresses me more than anything can be summed up in your last statement as well. Gretzky provided that 70-90 goals in four out of twenty seasons. Ovi has provided those 40-55 in 11 of 17 without accounting for shortened seasons. Taking those in, it could be argued to be 13 of 17 and maybe even 14 of 18 considering he missed the entirety of his potential rookie yr. Gretzky “only” broke 40 goals eight times in his career, but those times the numbers were gaudy.

 

Once again, it doesn’t take away from Gretzky’s peak or overall greatness, it just shows how consistently great Ovi has been througout his career. The guy entered the league a 50 goal scorer just as Wayne did and has maintained it just the same or even more so.

[Kevin Biestra]

19 minutes ago, Sp3nny said:

I agree with you wholeheartedly, and I wasn’t trying to paint Gretzky in a bad light, the guy was still putting up 100 pt seasons which is insane. I was just thinking of how we can interpret the “shadow of his former self” as a statement more than anything. Is a shadow of Gretzky’s former self the fact of scoring 90 points when in the past he scored 90 goals? I guess it just shows how amazing prime Gretzky was, but it also demonstrates a severe drop off from peak, while still being incredible.

 

I think the thing that impresses me more than anything can be summed up in your last statement as well. Gretzky provided that 70-90 goals in four out of twenty seasons. Ovi has provided those 40-55 in 11 of 17 without accounting for shortened seasons. Taking those in, it could be argued to be 13 of 17 and maybe even 14 of 18 considering he missed the entirety of his potential rookie yr. Gretzky “only” broke 40 goals eight times in his career, but those times the numbers were gaudy.

 

Once again, it doesn’t take away from Gretzky’s peak or overall greatness, it just shows how consistently great Ovi has been througout his career. The guy entered the league a 50 goal scorer just as Wayne did and has maintained it just the same or even more so.

 

Yeah Ovechkin is to 40 (and 50) goal scorers what Gartner was to 30 goal scorers and Andreychuk was to 20.  And now that he seems to be waking up...who knows what he might do before the season is over.

 

Edited February 14 by Kevin Biestra

[IBatch]

15 hours ago, Sp3nny said:

I agree with you wholeheartedly, and I wasn’t trying to paint Gretzky in a bad light, the guy was still putting up 100 pt seasons which is insane. I was just thinking of how we can interpret the “shadow of his former self” as a statement more than anything. Is a shadow of Gretzky’s former self the fact of scoring 90 points when in the past he scored 90 goals? I guess it just shows how amazing prime Gretzky was, but it also demonstrates a severe drop off from peak, while still being incredible.

 

I think the thing that impresses me more than anything can be summed up in your last statement as well. Gretzky provided that 70-90 goals in four out of twenty seasons. Ovi has provided those 40-55 in 11 of 17 without accounting for shortened seasons. Taking those in, it could be argued to be 13 of 17 and maybe even 14 of 18 considering he missed the entirety of his potential rookie yr. Gretzky “only” broke 40 goals eight times in his career, but those times the numbers were gaudy.

 

Once again, it doesn’t take away from Gretzky’s peak or overall greatness, it just shows how consistently great Ovi has been througout his career. The guy entered the league a 50 goal scorer just as Wayne did and has maintained it just the same or even more so.

Good post.   Ovi broke Gretzky's and Bossy's 40 goal plus record (number of seasons).   He is a very special player.   Biestra did a good job of explaining Greztky's final seasons.   Was hoping he'd bring up his final great playoff run.   Faced Lindros and the mighty Flyers.   Good to point out the dead puck era was already in full swing.   That started the moment SJ and OTT were added.   And was already in motion by 70's player Lemaire in NJ.   The "trap" or plugging up the neutral zone, wasn't a "new" idea.    NJ just perfected it at a perfect time, and all the bad teams in the league were soon doing it too.    Took a lot of shine out of the game.   Players were complaining about it already in 92-93.   Hull and later Roenick joined it, Mario was very vocal about it too.   Despite this, Gretzky went head to head against Lindros and co.   They both scored a hat trick, and the figurative "best of a generation, to the next best of a generation" was passed down.  This was Detroits first cup of back to back cup wins,  NYR almost went to the final instead, if so Gretzky had a shot at another Smythe.     Gretzky, like Crosby, had the IT factor when games were on the line.    92-93, LA almost went up 2-0 in the series ... McSorely stick, PP,  then Roy in OT ... two superstars.    Was something.   Then LA was dismantled.    Gretzky's shot at one more cup didn't look good.   His final series against PHI, was fun to watch. 

 

Feel Ovi would have managed fine in that era too.   Had the body for it anyways, that said who know's, if a much bigger man in Lindros can get his clocked cleaned by guys like Steven's (who Lindros crushed a dozen times or so too), and that guy in PIT who Domi sucked punched (and all of Canada cheered, dirty dirty player, kneeing, boarding etc) and a couple others.   Lindros was concussed several times before Steven's KO'd him already.     

Drafted Ovi in my hockey pool this year (not early, but still given it counts shots and hits ...and not plus minus)...didn't expect things to go so poorly for him.    Also felt, he could continue to play into his 40's.    Not anymore.   Traded him early too,  after watching, just something wasn't there anymore.    As for guys who score a lot of goals,  there was only one I thought who could challenge Gretzky for the record, and that was Brett Hull.    For half a decade, he filled the net.    Another casualty of the dead puck era.     Mentioned Mathews.   Doubt it.   Stamkos was awfully good until he broke his leg too.   Missed too much time.   It's nuts that a player has to score 44-45 or so goals for 20 years, to have a shot.     Ovi's doing that. 

Edited February 15 by IBatch

[Sp3nny]

2 hours ago, IBatch said:

Good post.   Ovi broke Gretzky's and Bossy's 40 goal plus record (number of seasons).   He is a very special player.   Biestra did a good job of explaining Greztky's final seasons.   Was hoping he'd bring up his final great playoff run.   Faced Lindros and the mighty Flyers.   Good to point out the dead puck era was already in full swing.   That started the moment SJ and OTT were added.   And was already in motion by 70's player Lemaire in NJ.   The "trap" or plugging up the neutral zone, wasn't a "new" idea.    NJ just perfected it at a perfect time, and all the bad teams in the league were soon doing it too.    Took a lot of shine out of the game.   Players were complaining about it already in 92-93.   Hull and later Roenick joined it, Mario was very vocal about it too.   Despite this, Gretzky went head to head against Lindros and co.   They both scored a hat trick, and the figurative "best of a generation, to the next best of a generation" was passed down.  This was Detroits first cup of back to back cup wins,  NYR almost went to the final instead, if so Gretzky had a shot at another Smythe.     Gretzky, like Crosby, had the IT factor when games were on the line.    92-93, LA almost went up 2-0 in the series ... McSorely stick, PP,  then Roy in OT ... two superstars.    Was something.   Then LA was dismantled.    Gretzky's shot at one more cup didn't look good.   His final series against PHI, was fun to watch. 

 

Feel Ovi would have managed fine in that era too.   Had the body for it anyways, that said who know's, if a much bigger man in Lindros can get his clocked cleaned by guys like Steven's (who Lindros crushed a dozen times or so too), and that guy in PIT who Domi sucked punched (and all of Canada cheered, dirty dirty player, kneeing, boarding etc) and a couple others.   Lindros was concussed several times before Steven's KO'd him already.     

Drafted Ovi in my hockey pool this year (not early, but still given it counts shots and hits ...and not plus minus)...didn't expect things to go so poorly for him.    Also felt, he could continue to play into his 40's.    Not anymore.   Traded him early too,  after watching, just something wasn't there anymore.    As for guys who score a lot of goals,  there was only one I thought who could challenge Gretzky for the record, and that was Brett Hull.    For half a decade, he filled the net.    Another casualty of the dead puck era.     Mentioned Mathews.   Doubt it.   Stamkos was awfully good until he broke his leg too.   Missed too much time.   It's nuts that a player has to score 44-45 or so goals for 20 years, to have a shot.     Ovi's doing that. 

I think it’s interesting how we view the dead puck era. Visually it was quite obvious it affected scoring, and statistically it did as well, but it’s almost identical to modern era scoring. This is more likely a case of teams learning defensive structure from newfound strategies as well as a major advancement in goaltending from a modern point of view, and the average player now is much better now than 30 yrs ago IMO. But my point is, we seem to always talk about the dead puck era like it was deprived of all scoring, when in reality it wasn’t rly any lower scoring than the NHL of the last 20 yrs.

 

Your bang on with the play style in dead puck, if you go back and watch games now it seems like a different sport. The stick work was crazy, the structure was evident but rudimentary, and you had to be tough as nails to survive. I was recently watching some Lindros highlights and you forget how much of an animal that guy was. I’ve always felt he held one of the greatest presence on the ice, just a truly formidable opponent. He didn’t do himself any favors with how physical and nasty he himself was, and it put a pretty big target on his back unfortunately.

 

Statistically though, the dead puck era scoring was lowest in the early 2000’s. As a whole, Gretzky enjoyed an NHL that averaged 3.49 G/PG and a peak of 4.01. Ovechkin’s era has averaged 2.9 G/PG with a peak of 3.18.

 

Interestingly, Gretzky’s era also averaged 4.5 PP/G whereas Ovi has averaged 3.34 PP/G.

 

Lots of interesting numbers listed here (https://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/stats.html) and ones I hadn’t rly compared from 79-24. For me personally, it just solidifies Ovi as a truly special talent as a goal scorer. It also rly exemplifies the NHL’s reasoning to getting back to higher scoring hockey to me. I think we normally point to the dead puck era as the worst time, and while visually the hockey is much better now, especially the high end skill that is being adopted, the scoring hey day has never rly returned. We are just now starting to see some big numbers put up again which is very exciting.

 

Great convo fellas, fun going down memory lane a bit.

[IBatch]

4 hours ago, Sp3nny said:

I think it’s interesting how we view the dead puck era. Visually it was quite obvious it affected scoring, and statistically it did as well, but it’s almost identical to modern era scoring. This is more likely a case of teams learning defensive structure from newfound strategies as well as a major advancement in goaltending from a modern point of view, and the average player now is much better now than 30 yrs ago IMO. But my point is, we seem to always talk about the dead puck era like it was deprived of all scoring, when in reality it wasn’t rly any lower scoring than the NHL of the last 20 yrs.

 

Your bang on with the play style in dead puck, if you go back and watch games now it seems like a different sport. The stick work was crazy, the structure was evident but rudimentary, and you had to be tough as nails to survive. I was recently watching some Lindros highlights and you forget how much of an animal that guy was. I’ve always felt he held one of the greatest presence on the ice, just a truly formidable opponent. He didn’t do himself any favors with how physical and nasty he himself was, and it put a pretty big target on his back unfortunately.

 

Statistically though, the dead puck era scoring was lowest in the early 2000’s. As a whole, Gretzky enjoyed an NHL that averaged 3.49 G/PG and a peak of 4.01. Ovechkin’s era has averaged 2.9 G/PG with a peak of 3.18.

 

Interestingly, Gretzky’s era also averaged 4.5 PP/G whereas Ovi has averaged 3.34 PP/G.

 

Lots of interesting numbers listed here (https://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/stats.html) and ones I hadn’t rly compared from 79-24. For me personally, it just solidifies Ovi as a truly special talent as a goal scorer. It also rly exemplifies the NHL’s reasoning to getting back to higher scoring hockey to me. I think we normally point to the dead puck era as the worst time, and while visually the hockey is much better now, especially the high end skill that is being adopted, the scoring hey day has never rly returned. We are just now starting to see some big numbers put up again which is very exciting.

 

Great convo fellas, fun going down memory lane a bit.

Not sure how to respond.   You lost me a couple times.    Made a knee jerk reply.   Find it tough to have a real discussion about this sort of thing, unless I know i'm talking to someone who actually lived it too.    Average player back then was Martin Gelinas.   Sure wish we had someone like that on our team right now.    There is a big difference between fourth lines, and no more Darian Hatcher, Ludwig, Murzyn types.     As far as "learning new structures" my point was they already existed.   Lemaire.   And the Red Army already knew how to do that.   Probably the same if we go further back.     As far as numbers go, what makes tickles me is how the old guys were mostly seen carrying the mail in the 2000's.   Past the dead puck era.   Post lockout.   Well past their prime.   And those guys, couldn't carry Gretzky's, or Mario's jockstrap before it late in the game.   Aside from Jagr.  Sakic, Alfie and Sundin.   Iginla wasn't the better player at the time of his trade.   But became one.   Martin St. louis.   There wasn't much to celebrate until Ovi and Crosby came to the scene.    Lidstrom couldn't win a Norris until the old guard aged out at 30.    Anyways, i'm glad folks got to see Ovi.  And sure he's be great in any era.   Also sure we'd be talking about Lindros instead of Crosby, or maybe Sakic or Yzermen, had they started all at the same time.   For sure Lindros though.  

 

Edit:  Gelinas.   We could use some more reckless abandon.   That was his bread and butter.  

Edited February 15 by IBatch

[Sp3nny]

9 hours ago, IBatch said:

Not sure how to respond.   You lost me a couple times.    Made a knee jerk reply.   Find it tough to have a real discussion about this sort of thing, unless I know i'm talking to someone who actually lived it too.    Average player back then was Martin Gelinas.   Sure wish we had someone like that on our team right now.    There is a big difference between fourth lines, and no more Darian Hatcher, Ludwig, Murzyn types.     As far as "learning new structures" my point was they already existed.   Lemaire.   And the Red Army already knew how to do that.   Probably the same if we go further back.     As far as numbers go, what makes tickles me is how the old guys were mostly seen carrying the mail in the 2000's.   Past the dead puck era.   Post lockout.   Well past their prime.   And those guys, couldn't carry Gretzky's, or Mario's jockstrap before it late in the game.   Aside from Jagr.  Sakic, Alfie and Sundin.   Iginla wasn't the better player at the time of his trade.   But became one.   Martin St. louis.   There wasn't much to celebrate until Ovi and Crosby came to the scene.    Lidstrom couldn't win a Norris until the old guard aged out at 30.    Anyways, i'm glad folks got to see Ovi.  And sure he's be great in any era.   Also sure we'd be talking about Lindros instead of Crosby, or maybe Sakic or Yzermen, had they started all at the same time.   For sure Lindros though.  

 

Edit:  Gelinas.   We could use some more reckless abandon.   That was his bread and butter.  

All good, I get it. I did see the reply earlier. For the sake of clarity and honesty, I’m not old enough to have watched early Gretzky, but I was able to watch a lot of 90’s and 00’s hockey and have been avid to this day. Enough to know all about the stars of the day and what was going on with “dead puck” at the time. But from your posts, it seems you have even more experience with it than me, which is great.

 

Just to conclude my thought, and I don’t expect a reply to this, my post earlier was more a deep dive into exactly what the numbers show vs what I myself or others perceive. For instance, you specifically mentioned 92/93 as when bigger stars were complaining about dead puck, and yet that season had a 3.64 goals per game, much more than anything in the modern era (05+) which I definitely wouldn’t have guessed or known. Yes, the trap was in full effect and coupled with no two-line pass, the neutral zone was hell. The league is creeping back up over 3 goals per game now, and wouldn’t you know it McDavid crosses the 150 barrier for the first time in forever.

 

The three players I would love to see play today are Mario, Bure and Lindros. Special talents that were ahead of their time and careers were cut short.

 

Anyways enough about the past, let’s see how Ovi closes out the season. I’m rooting for him, others may not be. If he wants the record, he definitely has to train seriously this offseason.

Edited February 16 by Sp3nny
Spelling

[IBatch]

8 hours ago, Sp3nny said:

All good, I get it. I did see the reply earlier. For the sake of clarity and honesty, I’m not old enough to have watched early Gretzky, but I was able to watch a lot of 90’s and 00’s hockey and have been avid to this day. Enough to know all about the stars of the day and what was going on with “dead puck” at the time. But from your posts, it seems you have even more experience with it than me, which is great.

 

Just to conclude my thought, and I don’t expect a reply to this, my post earlier was more a deep dive into exactly what the numbers show vs what I myself or others perceive. For instance, you specifically mentioned 92/93 as when bigger stars were complaining about dead puck, and yet that season had a 3.64 goals per game, much more than anything in the modern era (05+) which I definitely wouldn’t have guessed or known. Yes, the trap was in full effect and coupled with no two-line pass, the neutral zone was hell. The league is creeping back up over 3 goals per game now, and wouldn’t you know it McDavid crosses the 150 barrier for the first time in forever.

 

The three players I would love to see play today are Mario, Bure and Lindros. Special talents that were ahead of their time and careers were cut short.

 

Anyways enough about the past, let’s see how Ovi closes out the season. I’m rooting for him, others may not be. If he wants the record, he definitely has to train seriously this offseason.

Thanks for your honesty.   Appreciate your input too!   Yes 92-93 was the end of an era.   93-94 hung on a little,  Gretzky was in on a ridiculous number of their points,   it was a little disappointing they didn't try harder to keep that team going.     Good for the Canucks though maybe.     As far as talent goes, i still don't think the league has got back to the 21-24 team era, especially when the iron curtain fell, and every team in the league was actively trying to find their star player from the former USSR, or another nation (Sweden/FIN).   Bure, Mogilny, Federov, Selanne, Zubov, Makarov, Larionov, Festisov, a bunch of goalies, and solid players a tier down Teppo N.   The year Gartner skated his all-star lap, his 17th year, a dozen guys skated a 13.5 or better lap (including the qualifyiers).    Mario and Gretzky..and the Miracle on ice inspired what could be the best collection of US players ever too.   Beat Canada in 96.   Lafontaine,  Hull, Keith Tckchuk etc.   Oats.   That era was so loaded, guys like Turgeon had to wait decades to get in.    There's a reason, if you look at stats only, that of the top 50 scorers, the bulk of them played in the 80's and 90's.    
 

The stars of the mid 2000's, were mostly guys who started in the late 80's and early 90's, well into their 30's  Sundin, Alfie, Sakic, Lidstrom,  Forsberg, Jagr,  Selanne, Niedermayer, Broduer, Pronger ...plus Yzerman, Francis, Shanny, Borque, Blake, Chelios, Rechhi,  Anderchyuk, Roy, Bure, Al Mac  and a pile of guys in the early 2000's too.     Problem with the league, was the expanded way too fast to replace the talent.    And the guys from the 80's were aging out.  Coffey.  Borque.  Murphy.  Housley, Leetch, Al Mac...Nobody was replacing that.  

 

From where i'm sitting, the biggest difference in the dead puck era and now, and before, was goalie equipment going extra huge, and that every team went super sized looking for their own Darian Hatcher/Ludwig types.   Pretty easy to stop a star like EP, if all you need to do is pin him to the boards, hold onto his arm, interfere etc.    The stars of that era, were able to succeed despite this.   The Sedins almost quit and went home.    Post lockout, the Hatchers and Ludwig's were quickly sent packing.    Fourth lines stopped being about energy and fighting (the instigator penalty created the stupid circus fighting became, settling things with guys who were expected to fight 20-30 times a year ).    Players also didn't have to literally fight their way into the league anymore too.   

 

For sure it's all about skill first now.   Fighting and now even hitting is being removed or gone from the junior levels.   Gretzky said it best when asked about fighting a couple years ago "fighting? what fighting, there is no more fighting.   When I was playing kids were doing that at 15-18...sure there is an odd fight, it's gone though".    That also changed how a fourth line is made.  Instead of a gritty energy guy who can score 10-10 playing 7-8 minutes a game, we've got two AHL level fringe guys, playing with an NHL vet on a lot of teams.   Playing 10-12 minutes a night.  

 

The talent level is a lot better than i've seen since the 90's.   For me anyways, that's why scoring is up.   And why save percentages are back to .904 etc.    Not that the goalies are worse.     
 

As a case study, if there was no Gretzky or Mario...that's a lot of scoring the league would have gone without.    Next best?  Stastny or maybe Hawerchuk in the 80's.    Looks rather garden variety.    Also think with the inclusion of a great supply of skilled PMD again, it's pushing the scoring up too.   Haven't seen that in a long time, Makar, QHs, Heiskenan, Dahlin, Fox etc.   Since Borque, Coffey, Murphy, Housley, Chelios, Al Mac, Leetch,  Lidstrom really.    

[Baratheon]

I always wonder what would have happened if Bossy had signed in LA rather than retire.  

It was somewhat close I believe.

[Dumb Nuck]

@Elias Pettersson will Ovi score tonight?

[Elias Pettersson]

12 minutes ago, Dumb Nuck said:

@Elias Pettersson will Ovi score tonight?

No. 

[wai_lai416]

Ovi with 2 more I’ve maintain if he gets 20+ this season it will happen.. realistically they just need a legit pp qb or a playmaker. Since backstrom is gone they don’t have that 

[Northern_Nuck]

5 minutes ago, wai_lai416 said:

Ovi with 2 more I’ve maintain if he gets 20+ this season it will happen.. realistically they just need a legit pp qb or a playmaker. Since backstrom is gone they don’t have that 

I think the problem is they wanted him surrounding with his friends and longtime teammates (backstrom, Kuznetsov, etc) if they got him some young fast linemates, it might get him more space and time to get better scoring opportunities. 

[Dumb Nuck]

58
57

[Elias Pettersson]

When will Ovi break the record?

[Coconuts]

He's woken up

[Kevin Biestra]

5 hours ago, Coconuts said:

He's woken up

 

He's woken up like Smaug in The Hobbit.  Guy is on a rampage.

[IBatch]

On 2/16/2024 at 12:21 PM, Baratheon said:

I always wonder what would have happened if Bossy had signed in LA rather than retire.  

It was somewhat close I believe.

Bossy and even Potvin's regular seasons and careers didn't last nearly as long as they could have,  had they not played 19 consecutive playoff series.   Especially when you consider the era they played in.   It took a toll on quite a few players.   His body was done, the same way Bure, Lindros, Orr and guys like Tim Kerr's were.    His stat line is ridiculous, GPG and points per game.   Up there with the very best after Mario and Gretzky.  

 

It's a testament to Bossy's center, that he could keep it going, and end up anchoring PIT's loaded team in the early 90's.    Good luck trying to find any NYI, who was part of those dynasties, that managed much  more then 1100 or so games.    Gillies, Trottier, Bossy, one of the all-time greatest lines. 

Edited February 21 by IBatch

[Master Mind]

The Great 8 with 8 goals in his last 8 games

[Dumb Nuck]

2 hours ago, Master Mind said:

The Great 8 with 8 goals in his last 8 games

Too bad he’s not the great 58.

[wai_lai416]

those that are saying all russian in the NHL should be banned because they are not denouncing putin publicly.. a 33 year old us/russian women was just detained blindfolded and handcuffed visiting her grandma in russian because she donated $50bux online to a ukranian organization.. unless you have no plans to ever return to russia.. the smart thing to do is don't comment on the situation regardless of your stance.. Putin already assassinated the russian pilot that defected.. wouldn't put it past him if a big name figure in sports from russia make him look bad he will retaliate one way or another.

[Coconuts]

Another one

[Dumb Nuck]

56

[Coconuts]

Another one

[Dumb Nuck]

1 hour ago, Coconuts said:

Another one

55

[cripplereh]

I think he should get it.

 

Once he is within 30 goals I bet the team rallies around and try to get him goals.

 

 

Also depends on his off season training as he is getting older so he trains hard he has a good shot pun intended.