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Ovi watch/prediction thread.


Dumb Nuck

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Ovechkin hasn’t scored in his last 9 games going back to last season.  He looks old and slow.  He actually looks like he’s 50 years old. 

 

I thought it was a sure thing that he would break it.  Like 100%.  I think the odds are now at around 80%.  If he only gets 20 goals this year then that would signal a major decline and would drop the odds to less than 70%.

 

He could play until he’s 45 I guess to break it. The problem though is will Washington keep paying him $9.5 million to score 15-20 goals.  Or will he play on a cheap contract just to break the record?  My hunch is he will keep playing even on a $1 million contract until he breaks it.  He might ruin his legacy a little if he is getting 10-15 goals a year to eventually break it but I don’t think he cares. He only has the one shot to do it.  Once he retires, it’s over…

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4 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Ovechkin hasn’t scored in his last 9 games going back to last season.  He looks old and slow.  He actually looks like he’s 50 years old. 

 

I thought it was a sure thing that he would break it.  Like 100%.  I think the odds are now at around 80%.  If he only gets 20 goals this year then that would signal a major decline and would drop the odds to less than 70%.

 

He could play until he’s 45 I guess to break it. The problem though is will Washington keep paying him $9.5 million to score 15-20 goals.  Or will he play on a cheap contract just to break the record?  My hunch is he will keep playing even on a $1 million contract until he breaks it.  He might ruin his legacy a little if he is getting 10-15 goals a year to eventually break it but I don’t think he cares. He only has the one shot to do it.  Once he retires, it’s over…

 

I think he's already surpassed everyone in terms of goals scored adjusted.  

 

Ovi during the 80s would've hit 80 goals in a year lol 

 

Washington games are only entertaining for Ovi watch and Tom Wilson shenanigans.  Nice little sideshow. 

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8 minutes ago, iinatcc said:

Probably sucks for Ovi that he many not be able to break the record due to 1 1/2 lockouts and a two shortened covid seasons. I think if either one of those things didn't happen Ovi would have broken the record by now.

If Gary Suter didn't crosscheck Gretzky into the boards maybe Gretzky would've played another season or two.  (Paul Kariya wasn't the only career of an elite player he shortened).  The stink of Calgary is all over Suter.

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18 hours ago, AatuD2 said:

 

I think he's already surpassed everyone in terms of goals scored adjusted.  

 

Ovi during the 80s would've hit 80 goals in a year lol 

 

Washington games are only entertaining for Ovi watch and Tom Wilson shenanigans.  Nice little sideshow. 

 

By this logic, Gretzky would have scored 120 goals in the 1960's.  It's all relative.  You can't compare eras and you can't really "adjust" anything...

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2 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

 

By this logic, Gretzky would have scored 120 goals in the 1960's.  It's all relative.  You can't compare eras and you can't really "adjust" anything...

 

Sure they can... 

 

https://www.hockey-reference.com/leaders/goals_adjusted_career.html

 

Looks like he's one behind Gordie Howe, and Jagr is third. 

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45 minutes ago, AatuD2 said:

 

Sure they can... 

 

https://www.hockey-reference.com/leaders/goals_adjusted_career.html

 

Looks like he's one behind Gordie Howe, and Jagr is third. 

 

That's interesting.  Is there any literature that explains how they "adjusted" the goals? 

 

Also, what about the centre ice line?  Do you how many more goals Gretzky would have gotten without a red line in place?  Didn't they eliminate the centre ice red line just in time for the start of Ovi's career?

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8 minutes ago, Crimson JH said:

Of course, they will give him the easy score to get him on the ice with an empty net…  Kind of a bit cheating.. I know it’s a goal, but an easy one

He actually made a nice move to get free and score. Gretzky has 56 EN goals, I believe this was Ovis 55th so he’s “cheated” one less than Gretzky.

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On 10/18/2023 at 6:57 PM, Dumb Nuck said:

All time career NHL goals beginning of 23/24 season:

  1. Gretzky - 894
  2. Ovi - 822

 

Predict the date Ovi ties and beats Gretzky's record, winner gets bragging rights.

 

I'll go out on a limb and predict he doesn't do it, retires maybe 20-30 goals short.


 

71

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I hope you’re right. Call me old school and sentimental but I’m partial to 99 maintaining that title 

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i think caps is gonna miss playoffs and be at the lower end of the standings. The core is old and slow, i think they will wind up a bit after 10-20 games but as we know all too well, that will be too late and they will be out of the race for the wildcard spot sometime february. 

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11 minutes ago, Mrwipeout said:

i think caps is gonna miss playoffs and be at the lower end of the standings. The core is old and slow, i think they will wind up a bit after 10-20 games but as we know all too well, that will be too late and they will be out of the race for the wildcard spot sometime february. 

Caps are old, slow, and stink. But they are still big and tough. They will beat up on the softies. Like they just beat up the Devils. OV will get goals against the softies. 

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1 hour ago, Alflives said:

Caps are old, slow, and stink. But they are still big and tough. They will beat up on the softies. Like they just beat up the Devils. OV will get goals against the softies. 

agreed......but i dont think its enough. They will battle in the bottom half. i think they will get some more points early to mid season but in the end it wont be enough. they will not make the playoffs.

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26 minutes ago, Mrwipeout said:

agreed......but i dont think its enough. They will battle in the bottom half. i think they will get some more points early to mid season but in the end it wont be enough. they will not make the playoffs.

Yup. They will miss the playoffs, but still beat up on the softy teams like the Devils. OV will score on the PP, especially against the softy teams. 

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13 hours ago, RWJC said:

I hope you’re right. Call me old school and sentimental but I’m partial to 99 maintaining that title 

I never thought of Gretz as a goal guy. 

 

He'll always be the all-time points leader and assist leader. 

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