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Ovi watch/prediction thread.


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20 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:


I agree. I can’t see him playing an extra 2-3 years just to try and break the record if he’s only scoring 10 goals a year. Plus Washington may not re-sign him if his goal total is that low. Certainly not at $9 million. 

If he retires, i think WSH still has to eat his cap hit too.   Not 100% sure, there is something in the rules about signing guys after 35 though.    Don't think it will matter much anyways, they are dealing with the same thing JB had too, an aging roster with little in the pipe.   Going to be some rough years ahead regardless. 

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On 1/24/2024 at 6:32 AM, Elias Pettersson said:

So many great players.  All from different eras.  I actually hate the era comparison and the stat guys who try and adjust the points for different eras.  It's kinda stupid if you ask me.  Nobody, not even you or me, would know how Gretzky would fair in today's NHL.  All I know is that in his era he dominated his peers, much more so than Crosby has dominated his peers.  How many Hart trophies and Art Ross trophies has Crosby won against his peers?  Did Crosby win his scoring titles by 75-80 points over his peers?  This is how you can define greatness IMO.  What did the player do against his peers at the time he played with the same rules and the same equipment and the same goalies.  

 

Gretzky was so far above his peers that they literally retired his number league wide.  The only player in history to have that happen.  Crosby did not dominate his peers to the same degree.  Like not even close.  This is how I look at it.  Trying to guess how many points Gretzky would score in today's NHL to try and downplay his greatness in his era is kinda dumb.  Nobody, not even Gretzky himself, would know the answer to that question...

 

From 1980 until around 1986 it was Wayne Gretzky with around 200 points and then a handful of guys with 110-130 points.  Crosby never dominated like that at all.  He was just considered the best of the 110-130 point guys but everyone was within a stone's throw of each other.  No disrespect to Henrik or Daniel Sedin but Gretzky would have never had enough of an off year in his prime for either of them to win the Art Ross.  Once Mario Lemieux hit his stride it was Gretzky and Mario...and then again a handful of guys with 110-130 points.

 

I think Crosby would have probably been the class of that 110-130 group but I don't know how much he would have separated himself from Stastny, Hawerchuk, Trottier, Lafontaine etc.  Would it have been a much bigger difference than he had over the guys who were the second best player in the league from 2006 to 2019 or whenever.

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5 minutes ago, Kevin Biestra said:

 

From 1980 until around 1986 it was Wayne Gretzky with around 200 points and then a handful of guys with 110-130 points.  Crosby never dominated like that at all.  He was just considered the best of the 110-130 point guys but everyone was within a stone's throw of each other.  No disrespect to Henrik or Daniel Sedin but Gretzky would have never had enough of an off year in his prime for either of them to win the Art Ross.  Once Mario Lemieux hit his stride it was Gretzky and Mario...and then again a handful of guys with 110-130 points.

 

I think Crosby would have probably been the class of that 110-130 group but I don't know how much he would have separated himself from Stastny, Hawerchuk, Trottier, Lafontaine etc.  Would it have been a much bigger difference than he had over the guys who were the second best player in the league from 2006 to 2019 or whenever.

Yup. The greatest players would be the greatest players in any era. But there have been three who would be in that stratosphere of greatest above all the others in any era too: 99, 66, and 4. In any era those three would stand out as (by far) the greatest. 

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4 hours ago, IBatch said:

If he retires, i think WSH still has to eat his cap hit too.   Not 100% sure, there is something in the rules about signing guys after 35 though.    Don't think it will matter much anyways, they are dealing with the same thing JB had too, an aging roster with little in the pipe.   Going to be some rough years ahead regardless. 


The 35+ contract is a great point. If it is 2 years in length with bonuses attached then the cap hit still remains even if they buy him out. So Washington might not want to give him more than a one year deal to see what happens. 
 

He still has a contract for 2 more years. So who knows. At this pace, he might just call it a career after his current contract is over. 

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On 1/27/2024 at 11:04 AM, Elias Pettersson said:


The 35+ contract is a great point. If it is 2 years in length with bonuses attached then the cap hit still remains even if they buy him out. So Washington might not want to give him more than a one year deal to see what happens. 
 

He still has a contract for 2 more years. So who knows. At this pace, he might just call it a career after his current contract is over. 

 

There is no doubt about him playing out his contract. He is playing well and a more complete game this year because he has been forced to with the current roster make up in Washington. From all reports and watching some games online he is still quite motivated and passionate on the ice.

 

The difference is he doesn't have one or two players who can distribute the puck to him like he has had throughout his career. He is not able to get into the positions where he has succeeded in the past. The loss of Backstrom is massive, along with Kuznetsov really struggling this season. He will produce around 60 points by the end of the year and hit around 20 goals. Not ideal for him but he is doing more of the heavy lifting that he used to benefit from others doing in the past.

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I think like said before.If he gets 20 thus year and next that might be it for him.

 

End of his contract I don't see him getting the scoring record.He might end up within ten goals but at his age doubt he gets it unless all are empty net goals for a good team which Washington ain't anymore.

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11 hours ago, cripplereh said:

I think like said before.If he gets 20 thus year and next that might be it for him.

 

End of his contract I don't see him getting the scoring record.He might end up within ten goals but at his age doubt he gets it unless all are empty net goals for a good team which Washington ain't anymore.

Father time comes for us all.   Didn't expect this...Saw it happen first hand with Messier though.   In the dead puck era, after a pretty good run too with his old pal Gretzky ...

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On 1/28/2024 at 7:37 PM, Dumb Nuck said:

I go with yes.

 

yes,yes,yes,yes,yes: these are for the next 5 questions you ask, beyond that, I do not know.

Maybe yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes this year.

 

Then next year.   Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes .... Then, we finally arrive, at NO.      Which puts him behind Howe, Gretzky and Hull Senior, for most pro goals, and second for NHL goals.    No matter how the "goal posts" are moved (era adjusted is simply ridiculous, we can trace back as far as we want ... 37 year old Sakic played when Ovi started, as did Sundin, Selanne,  St Louis, Iginla, Zubov, Alfie etc etc etc).  

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10 hours ago, IBatch said:

Father time comes for us all.   Didn't expect this...Saw it happen first hand with Messier though.   In the dead puck era, after a pretty good run too with his old pal Gretzky ...

Same saw both retire and entire careers.

 

Gretzky could have played another year but thought he would hamper the team so called it.

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On 1/30/2024 at 3:07 PM, cripplereh said:

Same saw both retire and entire careers.

 

Gretzky could have played another year but thought he would hamper the team so called it.

Yeah but Gretzky wasnt chasing anyone.

 

 

63

 

 

 

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18 hours ago, Dumb Nuck said:

I wouldn’t be surprised is he didn’t but he did just score on the PP.

 

 

62

Did he ever score a short handed goal!   Well maybe he did (anyone who plays that much, gets a shift near the end of a PP against).    Just checked, 3 his rookie year.   One in 2008-2009, and one in 2021-2022, 13 years apart!    Yet somehow, some folks who never watched Gretzky play, are hoping this guy passes him.   Or trying to

invalidate with "era" adjusted stuff.    How many did Gretzky score again?  And why would for god's green Earth, anyone put a player on the ice if they were short handed anyways?   Let's just say a lot.   72 or 71 or something something too lazy to look that up, but did have to look up Ovi's.  Sure let's even out save percentage.   So Gretzky scores 5% or so less shorties.   Take away a few.    Carry the whatever.   Same folks can't do long division. 

 

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3 hours ago, IBatch said:

Did he ever score a short handed goal!   Well maybe he did (anyone who plays that much, gets a shift near the end of a PP against).    Just checked, 3 his rookie year.   One in 2008-2009, and one in 2021-2022, 13 years apart!    Yet somehow, some folks who never watched Gretzky play, are hoping this guy passes him.   Or trying to

invalidate with "era" adjusted stuff.    How many did Gretzky score again?  And why would for god's green Earth, anyone put a player on the ice if they were short handed anyways?   Let's just say a lot.   72 or 71 or something something too lazy to look that up, but did have to look up Ovi's.  Sure let's even out save percentage.   So Gretzky scores 5% or so less shorties.   Take away a few.    Carry the whatever.   Same folks can't do long division. 

 

Gretzky was obviously an incredible, one of a kind player. He has many records that will likely never be touched. But Ovechkin didn't just fluke his way to being this close to catching one of those records thought to be untouchable.

 

Ovechkin has had incredible durability and consistency mixed with high level play. From 2012-2020 he won 7 of the 8 possible Richard trophies. That's pretty incredible. Over those 8 seasons he scored more than 100 more goals than his closest competitor (Patrick Kane). Even if you include the two seasons prior in 2010-11 and 2011-12, which were his down years, he's still 90 goals ahead of Stamkos. Over his 18 seasons prior to this one he averaged 0.61 goals/game, a pace of 50 goals/season. That's an incredibly long time period to do that.

 

Fans have been given an opportunity to witness something truly historic and understandably are excited to see it happen. That doesn't take away from everything Gretzky accomplished. It took until 38 years old for Ovechkin to finally look human.

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3 minutes ago, Canuck You said:

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Yup. OV is close but his lack of serious training and off ice commitment have resulted in a serious drop off. He’s done. Zero chance to catch 99. 
The only question is does OV head back to Russia after he’s done here? 

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