Ovi watch/prediction thread.

[IBatch]

On 10/22/2023 at 8:26 PM, iinatcc said:

Probably sucks for Ovi that he may not be able to break the record due to 1 1/2 lockouts and a two shortened covid seasons. I think if either one of those things didn't happen Ovi would have broken the record by now.

Curious as to how you arrive at the 1.5.   He missed half a season.   As for guys that actually missed 1.5 seasons, it's a very, very long list.  Several players would have surpassed Howe.   Francis, Sakic....and many others, Sundin, Alfie, Selanne, Jagr would have 150-225 more points.   Ovi has  longevity.  To me, again, he's like Dave Andreychuk plus plus.    And as for "era adjusted" it's complete BS.   If you want to look at who's playing better than the next generation, just compare them.  It's not hard to do.  If Iginla can't make it work in the 90's but does in the 2000's.   Jagr is a good measuring stick, a level up on Ovi IMO.   And would also have 800 plus goals ..: maybe 1000 had he just stayed, and he almost won the Richard trophy after a full year off ... 53 I think.     So.   Ovi's finding it harder to score this year.   Father time comes for you all.   BTW, Sakic at 37 scored over 100 points, in the dead puck era which really started around 91-92, the clutching and grabbing, what did Gretzky do until he retired? And how old was he.   And you can't compare any era that has no redline.   To ones prior to it.    Big kink in "era adjusted".     Howe, Hull.   Ovi.  He's got to actually beat Gretzky's record to own it. 

 

Edit:  Linden too.  Other guys like him, that if they played, maybe it put them in a better conversation for the HHOF.   Including our coach.   It was the late boomers and gen x that lost  1.5 seasons.  

Edited December 5, 2023 by IBatch

[IBatch]

On 11/9/2023 at 2:19 PM, King Heffy said:

When you act like a piece of shit, expect to be considered one.  Most other Russian players have had the decency to not publicly endorse the subhuman vermin they call a president.  Actions have consequences.

Wow.  Yes actions do have consequences.  Your high and mighty attitude ... what have you ever had to face in life that was so bad?  Maybe you Mom wouldn't let you play nintendo all night?   And that grudge has made you that way.  It's how you come across.   

[Alflives]

3 minutes ago, IBatch said:

Curious as to how you arrive at the 1.5.   He missed half a season.   As for guys that actually missed 1.5 seasons, it's a very, very long list.  Several players would have surpassed Howe.   Francis, Sakic....and many others, Sundin, Alfie, Selanne, Jagr would he 150-225 more points.   Ovi has  longevity.  To me, again, he's like Dave Andreychuk plus plus.    And as for "era adjusted" it's complete BS.   If you want to look at who's playing better than the next generation, just compare them.  It's not hard to do.  If Iginla can't make it work in the 90's but does in the 2000's.   Jagr is a good measuring stick, a level up on Ovi IMO.   And would also have 800 plus goals ..: maybe 1000 had he just stayed.    So.   Ovi's finding it harder to score this year.   Father time comes for you all.   BTW, Sakic at 37 scored over 100 points.   And you can't compare any era that has no redline.   To ones prior to it.    Big kink in "era adjusted".     Howe, Hull.   Ovi.  He's got to actually beat Gretzky's record to own it. 

Yup. The adjusting stats for era is stupid. The great players (OV) would score and be great in any era. OV is a very big guy. He would have to skate on old tube skates with full edges and on soft ice in old time eras. He’d still score a ton of goals though just like he has done in this era. 
I think these era adjustment stats people forget about equipment and ice conditions. They tend to be younger folk who never skated on anything but ideal ice and on great skates. Plus there’s the stick technologies to consider. 

[IBatch]

3 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Yup. The adjusting stats for era is stupid. The great players (OV) would score and be great in any era. OV is a very big guy. He would have to skate on old tube skates with full edges and on soft ice in old time eras. He’d still score a ton of goals though just like he has done in this era. 
I think these era adjustment stats people forget about equipment and ice conditions. They tend to be younger folk who never skated on anything but ideal ice and on great skates. Plus there’s the stick technologies to consider. 

Yes he'd be playing with a wooden stick with limited flex.   Take any 180lb guy today, and they can wire them.   Imagine Bossy and Gretzky with skates today and sticks that add 10 mph to any shot.   Also agree Ovi would be great back then too.  

Edited December 5, 2023 by IBatch

[King Heffy]

9 minutes ago, IBatch said:

Wow.  Yes actions do have consequences.  Your high and mighty attitude ... what have you ever had to face in life that was so bad?  Maybe you Mom wouldn't let you play nintendo all night?   And that grudge has made you that way.  It's how you come across.   

Bringing a poster's family into the conversation does nothing other than ensure that no one takes you seriously.

[IBatch]

3 minutes ago, King Heffy said:

Bringing a poster's family into the conversation does nothing other than ensure that no one takes you seriously.

lol.  I was hoping you'd actually give me an example, of why you think it's ok to have such judgement.  About what I expected.   Do you actually think, we take you seriously?  

Edited December 5, 2023 by IBatch

[King Heffy]

Just now, IBatch said:

lol.  I was hoping you'd actually give me an example, of why you think it's ok to have such judgement.  About what I expected.  

No reason to dignify the trash you posted by satisfying your hopes and dreams.

[IBatch]

18 minutes ago, King Heffy said:

No reason to dignify the trash you posted by satisfying your hopes and dreams.

Good job!  Keep it up.   You dish it out with regularity, try living what your preaching.   I forgive you.   Kindness is a good start.  Universal solvent.    And try living in these people shoes mentally for a few moments.     There is a difference between morality and ethics.   Suggest that as a good starting point.    Or just living instead.   Hope you're not this rigid in your own life.    Hope you can forgive me too, for been a bit of an asshole.   If I didn't care, I wouldn't have bothered.  Love  humour, but it doesn't come across funny. 

Edited December 5, 2023 by IBatch

[Alflives]

[IBatch]

Back to Ovi.   Looks like he's hit a wall.   

[Alflives]

9 minutes ago, IBatch said:

Back to Ovi.   Looks like he's hit a wall.   

Yup. He is playing old. It’s like he’s got the yips. 

[IBatch]

3 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Yup. He is playing old. It’s like he’s got the yips. 

I picked him in my hockey pool.  More like yikes! 

[Master Mind]

No Backstrom, Kuznetsov a healthy scratch.

 

The talent to get Ovie the puck isn't what it used to be.

[IBatch]

2 hours ago, Master Mind said:

No Backstrom, Kuznetsov a healthy scratch.

 

The talent to get Ovie the puck isn't what it used to be.

Guys also 38.   Turns out he's no Howe or Jagr after all.  Go figure.  Or Sakic.    Whose career ended because of a snowblower.    Sakic, Howe and Jagr were all line drivers at that age.   It happens to everyone eventually. 

Edited December 5, 2023 by IBatch

[Diamonds]

3 hours ago, IBatch said:

Curious as to how you arrive at the 1.5.   He missed half a season.   As for guys that actually missed 1.5 seasons, it's a very, very long list.  Several players would have surpassed Howe.   Francis, Sakic....and many others, Sundin, Alfie, Selanne, Jagr would have 150-225 more points.   Ovi has  longevity.  To me, again, he's like Dave Andreychuk plus plus.    And as for "era adjusted" it's complete BS.   If you want to look at who's playing better than the next generation, just compare them.  It's not hard to do.  If Iginla can't make it work in the 90's but does in the 2000's.   Jagr is a good measuring stick, a level up on Ovi IMO.   And would also have 800 plus goals ..: maybe 1000 had he just stayed, and he almost won the Richard trophy after a full year off ... 53 I think.     So.   Ovi's finding it harder to score this year.   Father time comes for you all.   BTW, Sakic at 37 scored over 100 points, in the dead puck era which really started around 91-92, the clutching and grabbing, what did Gretzky do until he retired? And how old was he.   And you can't compare any era that has no redline.   To ones prior to it.    Big kink in "era adjusted".     Howe, Hull.   Ovi.  He's got to actually beat Gretzky's record to own it. 

 

Edit:  Linden too.  Other guys like him, that if they played, maybe it put them in a better conversation for the HHOF.   Including our coach.   It was the late boomers and gen x that lost  1.5 seasons.  

I think the 1.5 was considering that Ovi's rookie year would have been 2004-05 if not for the lockout. I'm not sure he would have scored 50 a year younger, but I'm assuming that's what was implied.

The only person you listed who would have stood a chance at passing Howe if not for lockouts was Francis who only needed another 53 points, which he could have theoretically done in the 34 games missed in the 94-95 lockout, but it would have been very close.

 

Sakic was an incredible player, but he needed another 210 points to pass Howe. He was not doing that in the roughly 115-120 games he missed due to lockouts. Maybe he gets 90 points in the full lockout year and another 50 in the 94-95 lockout but that still puts him 70 points shy. Also, Sakic's 100 points season was post dead puck era. It was in the first post-lockout year in which scoring had a major bump.

 

Also, as an aside, the dead puck era definitely did not start start in 1991. Scoring was only really down between 1997-2004 and you can maybe add the 1996-97 season as that's the year it started to decline. Here's a nice chart to illustrate.

 

[IBatch]

49 minutes ago, Diamonds said:

I think the 1.5 was considering that Ovi's rookie year would have been 2004-05 if not for the lockout. I'm not sure he would have scored 50 a year younger, but I'm assuming that's what was implied.

The only person you listed who would have stood a chance at passing Howe if not for lockouts was Francis who only needed another 53 points, which he could have theoretically done in the 34 games missed in the 94-95 lockout, but it would have been very close.

 

Sakic was an incredible player, but he needed another 210 points to pass Howe. He was not doing that in the roughly 115-120 games he missed due to lockouts. Maybe he gets 90 points in the full lockout year and another 50 in the 94-95 lockout but that still puts him 70 points shy. Also, Sakic's 100 points season was post dead puck era. It was in the first post-lockout year in which scoring had a major bump.

 

Also, as an aside, the dead puck era definitely did not start start in 1991. Scoring was only really down between 1997-2004 and you can maybe add the 1996-97 season as that's the year it started to decline. Here's a nice chart to illustrate.

 

The clutching and grabbing, was complained about then - the actual definitive mark was the half season lockout.  94-95.  93-94 was the year.   The last one.  Mario bumped it a bit but not enough.   Then retired.   As the "official start" but marquee players like Mario, Hull, Gretzky, Roenick had been complaining about it for years before 1997.    Also you take Mario and Gretzky out of the equation, that graph doesn't look the same.   Same as the 80's.  Never said it starting then, said that's when they started to complain about it.  It went on for years before the "dead puck era" actually happened.    If you'd like, I will take some screenshots, of print media talking about it.    But that's a bit different than a graph. 

 

As for Sakic.  He didn't look to be slowing down..:a snowblower accident cut his career short.    Wasn't just the lockout years he missed.   Jagr and Francis ... and well even Messier would have had more points.  A lot of guys.  Federov.  Bure.   Mogilny.   Kariya. . Scott Steven's.  Selanne .  Babych.   Linden.   Ronning (and well 200 or so guys).    The point is, Ovi didn't suffer much at all, and you're proving my point.   No redline.   Post lockout.   Sundin.  How many would he have?  Guessing close to 1500 ... A pretty big benchmark.    Jagr likely has 900 plus too.   As  for the graph, there was expansion without much coming from behind to replace as well.   Not enough from Europe and Russia to sustain.   The 2000's was the worst decade of hockey, i've ever watched.   The 2010's not far behind, but an improvement, as far as goal scoring goes anyways.     I'm very grateful to see things start to go full circle again.   Save percentages back to .903 or low .900's.    No more "Garth Snowman" ... and well maybe, just maybe, the talent level is finally catching up to expansion again.

 

 

Edit:  As of right now there are two goalies with 600 plus pro wins, one didn't get any loser points.   And 3 guys with 900 plus pro goals. 

Edited December 5, 2023 by IBatch

[iinatcc]

4 hours ago, IBatch said:

Curious as to how you arrive at the 1.5.   He missed half a season.  

 

I was counting the 2004 NHL Lockout. His draft year. 

You take into consideration one full lockout season in 2004 and 2005. Then you count the shorted seasons in 2013, 2019-2020, and 2021. 

 

So it's actually closer to 2 seasons.

[Elias Pettersson]

Will Ovie ever score again?

[Dumb Nuck]

1 hour ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Will Ovie ever score again?

You asked that very question on page 3 and he did so I'll go with the odds and say yes he will score again.

[Alflives]

1 hour ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Will Ovie ever score again?

Yes, but not enough times to catch #99. 

[OldFaithfulcap]

Ovi needs a blood boy or something, maybe ihop is poisoning him..

 

I would love to get oshie here for the playoffs, but its a big cap hit comparatively and he'd still have a season left. He's still got plenty of grit.

[Elias Pettersson]

1 hour ago, Alflives said:

Yes, but not enough times to catch #99. 

 

It would be pretty sad if Ovie is 43 years old and needs those 5-6 goals to pass Gretzky.  So Washington puts him out there in a wheelchair and lets him score in the empty net.  Imagine if Ovie breaks the record with an empty net goal.  It would be sad.  Hopefully, Gretzky doesn't even bother to show up.

 

I remember when Gretzky broke Howe's records.  He was still in his prime doing his thing.  He wasn't even 30 years old.  Ovie is going to be an old man when he breaks the record.  So sad...

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, Elias Pettersson said:

 

It would be pretty sad if Ovie is 43 years old and needs those 5-6 goals to pass Gretzky.  So Washington puts him out there in a wheelchair and lets him score in the empty net.  Imagine if Ovie breaks the record with an empty net goal.  It would be sad.  Hopefully, Gretzky doesn't even bother to show up.

 

I remember when Gretzky broke Howe's records.  He was still in his prime doing his thing.  He wasn't even 30 years old.  Ovie is going to be an old man when he breaks the record.  So sad...

OV was awesome. But now he’s cooked. He should just retire. He’s only being selfish. He’s hurting his club. 

[Diamonds]

6 minutes ago, Alflives said:

OV was awesome. But now he’s cooked. He should just retire. He’s only being selfish. He’s hurting his club. 

Ovechkin is clearly declining, but he is a 35+ contract so if he retires Washington still has his full cap hit on the books. He might be in decline, but he isn't completely useless yet and he's still worth more playing than paying him not to play. He's actually tied for the team lead in points and still averaging 2 hits/game. Obviously Washington would like more out of him but at least he's still doing something.

[Alflives]

7 minutes ago, Diamonds said:

Ovechkin is clearly declining, but he is a 35+ contract so if he retires Washington still has his full cap hit on the books. He might be in decline, but he isn't completely useless yet and he's still worth more playing than paying him not to play. He's actually tied for the team lead in points and still averaging 2 hits/game. Obviously Washington would like more out of him but at least he's still doing something.

Love OV. But watching him now is like watching an old boxer trying to hang in. It’s just sad. He is hurting his club. Just retire.