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Ovi watch/prediction thread.


Dumb Nuck

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15 hours ago, King Heffy said:

He runs PutinTeam and has that subhuman piece of trash as his profile picture on his social media.  This orc aided and abetted Putin throughout his career,  and you think we should give it a pass and pretend he should be treated with any respect?  His open promotion and support of a Nazi regime has consequences.  Let that orc rot in the barbaric hellhole of a country he's from.

 

So you don't have an answer to what I asked you, cool. 

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44 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:


Did you know that Gretzky is the NHL scoring leader not only for the 1980’s but also for the 1990’s when he was in his 30’s and when the rules changed for clutching and grabbing?  Yes, Gretzky is the only player in NHL history to lead the league in scoring in TWO different decades. 
 

He has almost 900 points from 1990-1999. This is when he was in his 30’s.  Just as a comparison, McDavid has 886 points from age 18 to today at almost 27 years old. 
 

Gretzky also had to play with a wooden stick. If you’ve even played with a wooden stick you would know that today’s sticks make it much much easier to score goals. Gretzky played without a curve. I know this because I still have one of his sticks. This way he could play the backhand just as well as the forehand. The backhand shot is a lost art because of today’s sticks and curves. 
 

Imagine Ovechkin having to play with a wooden stick with no curve. I wonder how many of those one timers would have went in. Gretzky didn’t need to rely on his one timer. He had every arsenal in the book to score. 
 

Also, Gretzky didn’t need to feast on the power play to get points. In 1981-82 when he scored 92 goals and 212 points, he only scored 18 goals on the PP and 57 points. Compare that to McDavid last year who got almost half of his points on the PP. 

 

There is no doubt that if Wayne Gretzky were playing today he would dominate the league. No red line. No wooden stick. It would be a shit show for him on the ice. 90 goals and 200 points would be easily attainable for him in todays game no matter how big and mobile the goalies are. 

Never said Gretzky wouldnt dominate and be one of the best if not the best. But his numbers would be nowhere near what he did in the 80s.

The evolution of goaltending would not only make it more difficult for him to score, but every single apple he picked up would have a higher chance of being turned away. Plus playing in a salary cap where you are hard pressed to stack a roster. These things would absolutely have an immediate impact on his numbers.

 

lets hear you list each every single hall of fame member Gretzky played with and then the list that might be HOF worthy that Ovechkin played with. You can probably cut half of the hall of famers Gretzky played with out as soon as a salary cap is introduced. Then add conditioning, skating coaches, diets, athleticism to each and every single player going against Gretzky and then tell me what your “realistic” hypothetical goal and point totals would be for Gretzky in todays day and age.

 

Ovechkin and Crosby’s rivalry saved the NHL. 

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19 hours ago, AnthonyG said:

Never said Gretzky wouldnt dominate and be one of the best if not the best. But his numbers would be nowhere near what he did in the 80s.

The evolution of goaltending would not only make it more difficult for him to score, but every single apple he picked up would have a higher chance of being turned away. Plus playing in a salary cap where you are hard pressed to stack a roster. These things would absolutely have an immediate impact on his numbers.

 

lets hear you list each every single hall of fame member Gretzky played with and then the list that might be HOF worthy that Ovechkin played with. You can probably cut half of the hall of famers Gretzky played with out as soon as a salary cap is introduced. Then add conditioning, skating coaches, diets, athleticism to each and every single player going against Gretzky and then tell me what your “realistic” hypothetical goal and point totals would be for Gretzky in todays day and age.

 

Ovechkin and Crosby’s rivalry saved the NHL. 

 One day, in the future, Ovi's greatness will be invalidated by a kid who never watched him play too.  And you will then understand some of the things being presented.    Jagr was a better hockey player.  And his equal as far as goal scoring goes.   Bure would have absolutely had a field day if he started a 15 years  later (he didn't need anyone on his line).   Same with Federov and Mogilny, and Sakic, Sundin, Selanne and a big list of other players.    Tochetts first comments when coming in was our team is out of shape.    I don't think you fully understand what the 80's were like, or the 90's.   Even the movie stars (Arny and Sly)... it's not the same.    The game isn't the same.    Era adjusted is fine.   Let's look at this.  Which player, is in on half or more points with regularity today?    Wouldn't go there.    Gretzky also played in LA.   It's not like they were loaded, he was driving their bus, so much so, they added two teams and he basically was responsible for expansion into the US sunbelt.   Mario played on some not so good teams, and some loaded teams as well.   And it's not like Ovi's teams have been chopped liver either, well until recently.     Get your facts straight on that front. 
 

Edit:  As far as nowhere near goes.   They'd be a lot closer than you think.   Adjust save percentages however you want.   .888 to .905 ...  go ahead and reduce Gretzky's points by 7%.     The league bloated itself.     30-32 teams versus 21-24.   Yikes.   Now  it's taken a very long time, for the talent level to move up to what it is today.    As far as speed goes.   Already posted, you won't find a faster group of guys as when Gartner set a record, for the somewhat "new" format which is the same one they use now.   There hasn't been a dozen guys who clocked in at 13.5 since.    There is also a big difference, between pounding the puck at the net at every chance (Brett Hull, Ovi,) being a net front guy (Andreychuk and Espo) and being a dynamic goal scorer.    72 shorties.   Gretzky wasn't the guy on the PP trying to score either.   I'm glad you got to witness greatness at least.   And well there are tiers.   Ovi isn't the best until he breaks his record.  

 

As far as conditioning goes.  That's simply silly.   Same with athleticism.   Goofy really.   Guess Rod the Bod, Jagr,  Tochett, Sakic, Yzerman ... should I go on?  Miller lol, doesn't look at all like they did does he?   Most of my crew looked way better then 2 time champs, on their way to their 3rd final beach  photo op.   Those crews were from the 90's.    Don't go there or I will post some Howe and Hull photos.    Howe was tested, and his conditioning was on par with a championship boxer.    The same guys who are considered as the golden era  class all-time of the sport.   You know that chubby Foreman guy who 20 years later got his belt back at 45.    Don't buy into that stuff.   

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39 minutes ago, IBatch said:

 One day, in the future, Ovi's greatness will be invalidated by a kid who never watched him play too.  And you will then understand some of the things being presented.    Jagr was a better hockey player.  And his equal as far as goal scoring goes.   Bure would have absolutely had a field day if he started a 15 years  later (he didn't need anyone on his line).   Same with Federov and Mogilny, and Sakic, Sundin, Selanne and a big list of other players.    Tochetts first comments when coming in was our team is out of shape.    I don't think you fully understand what the 80's were like, or the 90's.   Even the movie stars (Arny and Sly)... it's not the same.    The game isn't the same.    Era adjusted is fine.   Let's look at this.  Which player, is in on half or more points with regularity today?    Wouldn't go there.    Gretzky also played in LA.   It's not like they were loaded, he was driving their bus.    Mario played on some teams like that, and some loaded teams as well.   And it's not like Ovi's teams have been chopped liver either, well until recently. 
 

Edit:  As far as nowhere near goes.   They'd be a lot closer than you think.   Adjust save percentages however you want.   .888 to .905 ...  go ahead and reduce Gretzky's points by 7%.     The league bloated itself.     30-32 teams versus 21-24.   Yikes.   Now  it's taken a very long time, for the talent level to move up to what it is today.    As far as speed goes.   Already posted, you won't find a faster group of guys as when Gartner set a record, for the somewhat "new" format which is the same one they use now.   There hasn't been a dozen guys who clocked in at 13.5 since.    There is also a big difference, between pounding the puck at the net at every chance (Brett Hull, Ovi,) being a net front guy (Andreychuk and Espo) and being a dynamic goal scorer.    72 shorties.   Gretzky wasn't the guy on the PP trying to score either.   I'm glad you got to witness greatness at least.   And well there are tiers.   Ovi isn't the best until he breaks his record.  

Where did I ever invalidate Gretzky?? You’re the one blowing shit way out of reality. You think Gretzky would still be rocking 150-200pts per season no problem when McDavid who is thd most talented player we have ever seen and the shit he can do at full speed has just finally reached 150pts last season and half of that shit came on the PP, which goes to show even further how god damn difficult it is to score in todays game. THEY HAVE LITERALLY DONE EVERYTHING TO TRY AND INCREASE GOAL SCORING. Lmfao you think adjusting the avg league sv% is what determines the reduction in points for Gretzky?? Why not take a look at Gretzkys highly inflated shooting% of 20-27% for 6  years and averaging 17% sh% throughout his career which is nowhere near what it is today and it wasnt just Gretzky with 20%+ shooting % it was a huge chunk of that era, so what does that mean these guys from the 80s are all fucking gods??
why dont we see what just a 5% change in shooting % does to his goal totals bud, oh and lets not forget each and every single apple he picked up would also be affected by sh% and sv%

his goals

894

Shots 5088x.05=254.4 lets just round down to 254 for your sake.

894-254=640

Gretzky would no doubt still be one of the top point producers in the history of the game, but his sh% and the era he played in versus today would have had a significant impact on his point production in every single way. Remember, he has more assists than then next guy has points. Thats a lot of apples coming down off the tree when you start adjusting shooting% which is ultimately what you should be using to calculate. 
 

the topic was goal scoring not point production.

 

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On 12/13/2023 at 12:48 PM, AnthonyG said:

Where did I ever invalidate Gretzky?? You’re the one blowing shit way out of reality. You think Gretzky would still be rocking 150-200pts per season no problem when McDavid who is thd most talented player we have ever seen and the shit he can do at full speed has just finally reached 150pts last season and half of that shit came on the PP, which goes to show even further how god damn difficult it is to score in todays game. THEY HAVE LITERALLY DONE EVERYTHING TO TRY AND INCREASE GOAL SCORING. Lmfao you think adjusting the avg league sv% is what determines the reduction in points for Gretzky?? Why not take a look at Gretzkys highly inflated shooting% of 20-27% for 6  years and averaging 17% sh% throughout his career which is nowhere near what it is today and it wasnt just Gretzky with 20%+ shooting % it was a huge chunk of that era, so what does that mean these guys from the 80s are all fucking gods??
why dont we see what just a 5% change in shooting % does to his goal totals bud, oh and lets not forget each and every single apple he picked up would also be affected by sh% and sv%

his goals

894

Shots 5088x.05=254.4 lets just round down to 254 for your sake.

894-254=640

Gretzky would no doubt still be one of the top point producers in the history of the game, but his sh% and the era he played in versus today would have had a significant impact on his point production in every single way. Remember, he has more assists than then next guy has points. Thats a lot of apples coming down off the tree when you start adjusting shooting% which is ultimately what you should be using to calculate. 
 

the topic was goal scoring not point production.

 

No i'm trying to say, quite clearly, that adjusting is goofy.   It's easier with context.  And Gretzky's "inflated" shooting percentage, was a result of just how good he was.  There is  a very good reason his number was retired league wide, and he went directly into the HHOF.     McDavid is very fast, a ton of players were faster than Gretzky.    Hagelin is very fast too.  So was Raymond.    Robataille had concrete in his skates.    There is a big difference, doing nutso stuff like scoring off a face off with everyone lined up like it was a penalty kick in soccer late in the game (to tie it).  And blasting the puck 400 times or more a season.   As far as goal scoring, since it's the topic,  Mario, Gretzky, Bure, Bossy, Ovi, Espo, Hull all did it differently.    Ovi's a shooter and can also do some very cool stuff too.   Like the Hulls.    Don't worry, i'm sure he will break the record.   

 

I've attempted to explain how easy it is to compare stars from generation to generation.    How do they play in their 20's versus the stars in their 30's.   Gretzky was obliterating them.    The stars of the 2000's, had a very tough time against the aging stars from the 90's.   A lot of those 90's stars, we're killing it in their mid to late 30's.   Weren't they?  Alfie.  Sakic.  Selanne.  Sundin.    Jagr of course, is a great litmus test.   It would have been something to watch Gretzky play in today's game.   Same with Bure,  Lindros likely ends up a top 3-5 center all-time.  If you didn't get to see those guys or Mario before he retired and came back, i'm sorry.    You did however, get to see Crosby and Ovi play.    Yzerman verus Crosby is another interesting debate.    

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16 hours ago, IBatch said:

No i'm trying to say, quite clearly, that adjusting is goofy.   It's easier with context.  And Gretzky's "inflated" shooting percentage, was a result of just how good he was.  There is  a very good reason his number was retired league wide, and he went directly into the HHOF.     McDavid is very fast, a ton of players were faster than Gretzky.    Hagelin is very fast too.  So was Raymond.    Robataille had concrete in his skates.    There is a big difference, doing nutso stuff like scoring off a face off with everyone lined up like it was a penalty kick in soccer late in the game (to tie it).  And blasting the puck 400 times or more a season.   As far as goal scoring, since it's the topic,  Mario, Gretzky, Bure, Bossy, Ovi, Espo, Hull all did it differently.    Ovi's a shooter and can also do some very cool stuff too.   Like the Hulls.    Don't worry, i'm sure he will break the record.   

 

I've attempted to explain how easy it is to compare stars from generation to generation.    How do they play in their 20's versus the stars in their 30's.   Gretzky was obliterating them.    The stars of the 2000's, had a very tough time against the aging stars from the 90's.   A lot of those 90's stars, we're killing it in their mid to late 30's.   Weren't they?  Alfie.  Sakic.  Selanne.  Sundin.    Jagr of course, is a great litmus test.   It would have been something to watch Gretzky play in today's game.   Same with Bure,  Lindros likely ends up a top 3-5 center all-time.  If you didn't get to see those guys or Mario before he retired and came back, i'm sorry.    You did however, get to see Crosby and Ovi play.    Yzerman verus Crosby is another interesting debate.    

and all those players got crushed by gretz and mario... Lindros and Forsberg were very very good too...in a big mans game in the mid 90'spretty much power forwards dominated the game not only did you have to be skilled you had to power through hooks or be skilled fast,and smart enough not to get destroyed by the scotts and hatchers of the league...which is why lemeiux did so good, he was all of that.... defense got better because they got away with murder for ten years from 95-2005... Lots of young stars got killed and had their careers ended short some monsters even... gary bettman nearly killed the league appeasing the owners that saught a more balanced game. the owners/coaches realized you could play defense and still be very competitive with the way the whistles seemed to be put away...it got so bad that they striked and yes mostly it was for money but second it was for the obstruction...

 

You are right though... between lindros/forsberg and Ovechkin/Crosby there wasnt much talent coming into the game and the salary cap limited teams like the rangers and leafs from creating all star group casts... was a big mans and defense first game for nearly 20 years... only in the past 5 years has teams start to introduce the third scoring line, eliminate the enforcer and have started to crack down on illicit drugs that allowed them to play through anything, which has allowed small skilled players to flourish again.. remind me how did theo fleury and pat lafontaine do in their late careers? likely helped that they had nearly twice the room and twice the amount of powerplays...

 

you and me will likely never look eye to eye on many things in hockey... likely cause you only focus on the negatives past the mid 90's and are blind to the advantages that the 80's and early 90's had, i mean not even all the teams had goalie coaches back in the 80's... unfortunate the major improvement in hockey were to goalies and coaching and the biggest goalscoring factor Powerplays were cut nearly in half in ten years thats half a goal a game right there, everyone blocked shots cause if you didnt theyd find someone else that would... game got alot tougher bigger meaner... you can tell just by looking at the top 20 scorers each decade and see how monsterous these players were and the goalies too... even the equipment spelt the demise to skilled small players,it was stronger and harder meaning the bigger you were the more pain you could inflict...

 

 

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On 12/12/2023 at 1:51 PM, AnthonyG said:

Never said Gretzky wouldnt dominate and be one of the best if not the best. But his numbers would be nowhere near what he did in the 80s.

The evolution of goaltending would not only make it more difficult for him to score, but every single apple he picked up would have a higher chance of being turned away. Plus playing in a salary cap where you are hard pressed to stack a roster. These things would absolutely have an immediate impact on his numbers.

 

lets hear you list each every single hall of fame member Gretzky played with and then the list that might be HOF worthy that Ovechkin played with. You can probably cut half of the hall of famers Gretzky played with out as soon as a salary cap is introduced. Then add conditioning, skating coaches, diets, athleticism to each and every single player going against Gretzky and then tell me what your “realistic” hypothetical goal and point totals would be for Gretzky in todays day and age.

 

Ovechkin and Crosby’s rivalry saved the NHL. 

 

 

As to the listing of Hall of Famers that Gretzky played with versus Ovechkin...  I think an equally fair way to look at it is that Gretzky got those guys into the Hall of Fame and created Hall of Famers.

 

Honestly the only person Gretzky played with that would have certainly made the Hall of Fame without him is Paul Coffey.  The next safest bet is probably Luc Robitaille.  I can promise you that Kevin Lowe never makes the Hall of Fame without Gretzky on his team and realistically I don't think Grant Fuhr does either.  Glenn Anderson is in largely for his unbelievable playoff success...  Does he get the chance to rack up those numbers if he's not on a team being primarily driven to the final year after year by Gretzky.

 

Messier and Kurri...  Tough to say.  I'm not sure what Messier would have turned into without Gretzky there in his development years.  Messier ended up being fantastic without Gretzky, especially in 1990 and 1994.  But I don't know if it would have happened if he had spent his first five or six years on the Hartford Whalers or New Jersey Devils.  As for Kurri...  He certainly never scores 70 goals without Gretzky and I would say probably not 60 either.  Without Gretzky I think Kurri might have had a hard time distinguishing himself career wise from guys who didn't make the Hall of Fame like Rick Vaive or Brian Bellows.  Again...tough to say but Gretzky made Kurri substantially more than the other way around.

 

Off the top of my head that's all the Hall of Famers I can think of that Gretzky played with unless you want to talk about half a season with Brett Hull in St. Louis or maybe crossing paths with Brian Leetch at the end, etc.

 

Ovechkin has played with less Hall of Famers partly by being on one team the whole time but also because he doesn't create Hall of Famers out of his teammates.  They aren't in the Hall of Fame but Mario Lemieux had a massive impact on the numbers of guys like Rob Brown and Kevin Stevens.  Steve Yzerman did the same for Gerard Gallant.  Those guys were very good players but playing with Lemieux and Yzerman took them to being 1st and 2nd team All Stars.

 

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After this season he has 3 left on his current contract if I’m not mistaken…. 
he needs less than 70 goals to beat Gretzky.   
unless he puts up 20 goals a season, he won’t catch him.   Ovi will continue to decline.  
 

not going to lie… I really hope he doesn’t catch Gretzky!  

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8 hours ago, HKSR said:

Wonder why the sudden drop off... did he slack off this offseason?  It's a bit weird he dropped off so abruptly.  He's typically a machine.

Father time comes for everyone, and well, for the first time in his career, he doesn't have the supporting cast either. 

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20 hours ago, Kevin Biestra said:

 

 

As to the listing of Hall of Famers that Gretzky played with versus Ovechkin...  I think an equally fair way to look at it is that Gretzky got those guys into the Hall of Fame and created Hall of Famers.

 

Honestly the only person Gretzky played with that would have certainly made the Hall of Fame without him is Paul Coffey.  The next safest bet is probably Luc Robitaille.  I can promise you that Kevin Lowe never makes the Hall of Fame without Gretzky on his team and realistically I don't think Grant Fuhr does either.  Glenn Anderson is in largely for his unbelievable playoff success...  Does he get the chance to rack up those numbers if he's not on a team being primarily driven to the final year after year by Gretzky.

 

Messier and Kurri...  Tough to say.  I'm not sure what Messier would have turned into without Gretzky there in his development years.  Messier ended up being fantastic without Gretzky, especially in 1990 and 1994.  But I don't know if it would have happened if he had spent his first five or six years on the Hartford Whalers or New Jersey Devils.  As for Kurri...  He certainly never scores 70 goals without Gretzky and I would say probably not 60 either.  Without Gretzky I think Kurri might have had a hard time distinguishing himself career wise from guys who didn't make the Hall of Fame like Rick Vaive or Brian Bellows.  Again...tough to say but Gretzky made Kurri substantially more than the other way around.

 

Off the top of my head that's all the Hall of Famers I can think of that Gretzky played with unless you want to talk about half a season with Brett Hull in St. Louis or maybe crossing paths with Brian Leetch at the end, etc.

 

Ovechkin has played with less Hall of Famers partly by being on one team the whole time but also because he doesn't create Hall of Famers out of his teammates.  They aren't in the Hall of Fame but Mario Lemieux had a massive impact on the numbers of guys like Rob Brown and Kevin Stevens.  Steve Yzerman did the same for Gerard Gallant.  Those guys were very good players but playing with Lemieux and Yzerman took them to being 1st and 2nd team All Stars.

 

Well said.   Ovi had two very good cores to work with his career that coincided each other.    This is the first time he'd dealt with a down cycle.   Not sure what WSH was thinking. 

 

Edit:  Suppose it was they thought he'd never stop.   Howe scored 100 in 72 games or something at age 40.   His best season, maybe that's who they thought they had.   

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21 hours ago, Kevin Biestra said:

 

 

As to the listing of Hall of Famers that Gretzky played with versus Ovechkin...  I think an equally fair way to look at it is that Gretzky got those guys into the Hall of Fame and created Hall of Famers.

 

Honestly the only person Gretzky played with that would have certainly made the Hall of Fame without him is Paul Coffey.  The next safest bet is probably Luc Robitaille.  I can promise you that Kevin Lowe never makes the Hall of Fame without Gretzky on his team and realistically I don't think Grant Fuhr does either.  Glenn Anderson is in largely for his unbelievable playoff success...  Does he get the chance to rack up those numbers if he's not on a team being primarily driven to the final year after year by Gretzky.

 

Messier and Kurri...  Tough to say.  I'm not sure what Messier would have turned into without Gretzky there in his development years.  Messier ended up being fantastic without Gretzky, especially in 1990 and 1994.  But I don't know if it would have happened if he had spent his first five or six years on the Hartford Whalers or New Jersey Devils.  As for Kurri...  He certainly never scores 70 goals without Gretzky and I would say probably not 60 either.  Without Gretzky I think Kurri might have had a hard time distinguishing himself career wise from guys who didn't make the Hall of Fame like Rick Vaive or Brian Bellows.  Again...tough to say but Gretzky made Kurri substantially more than the other way around.

 

Off the top of my head that's all the Hall of Famers I can think of that Gretzky played with unless you want to talk about half a season with Brett Hull in St. Louis or maybe crossing paths with Brian Leetch at the end, etc.

 

Ovechkin has played with less Hall of Famers partly by being on one team the whole time but also because he doesn't create Hall of Famers out of his teammates.  They aren't in the Hall of Fame but Mario Lemieux had a massive impact on the numbers of guys like Rob Brown and Kevin Stevens.  Steve Yzerman did the same for Gerard Gallant.  Those guys were very good players but playing with Lemieux and Yzerman took them to being 1st and 2nd team All Stars.

 

Rob Blake in LA.

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10 hours ago, Rubik said:

Is anyone watching Caps games? What is happening? Is Ovi done?

I watch them, he looks like he’s slowed down a lot and when your bread and butter is your shot every mph slower makes it easier to save.

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Dumb Nuck said:

I watch them, he looks like he’s slowed down a lot and when your bread and butter is your shot every mph slower makes it easier to save.

 

 

 

 

 

His goal total this year is inflated with 2 empty net goals and a meaningless goal on the PP with 10 seconds left in the game when the other team was already going to win.  So in reality he has 2 meaningful goals this year in 28 games.  Most if not all players would retire after the season, but we all know Ovi will play out his contract, which is his right.  So, two more years after this one.  If he is getting 10-15 goals per year, he'll still be 30+ goals short of the record when his contract is up and he's 41 years old.

 

So, the question is, will Washington re-sign him, or will he have to join another team to get the record?  Or will he just walk away and let Gretzky keep the record?

 

I mean, if he breaks the record with an empty net goal at age 43 when he's playing 8 minutes a night on the 4th line, is that really how he wants to go out?  is that really how he wants to break the record?

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9 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

 

His goal total this year is inflated with 2 empty net goals and a meaningless goal on the PP with 10 seconds left in the game when the other team was already going to win.  So in reality he has 2 meaningful goals this year in 28 games.  Most if not all players would retire after the season, but we all know Ovi will play out his contract, which is his right.  So, two more years after this one.  If he is getting 10-15 goals per year, he'll still be 30+ goals short of the record when his contract is up and he's 41 years old.

 

So, the question is, will Washington re-sign him, or will he have to join another team to get the record?  Or will he just walk away and let Gretzky keep the record?

 

I mean, if he breaks the record with an empty net goal at age 43 when he's playing 8 minutes a night on the 4th line, is that really how he wants to go out?  is that really how he wants to break the record?

In the first post I predicted he wouldn’t make it but I did not expect the start he’s had so far. I think if he doesn’t do it by the time his contract expires he should pack it in, aging is a b1tch.

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