Ovi watch/prediction thread.

[The Lock]

1 hour ago, Elias Pettersson said:

 

His goal total this year is inflated with 2 empty net goals and a meaningless goal on the PP with 10 seconds left in the game when the other team was already going to win.  So in reality he has 2 meaningful goals this year in 28 games.  Most if not all players would retire after the season, but we all know Ovi will play out his contract, which is his right.  So, two more years after this one.  If he is getting 10-15 goals per year, he'll still be 30+ goals short of the record when his contract is up and he's 41 years old.

 

So, the question is, will Washington re-sign him, or will he have to join another team to get the record?  Or will he just walk away and let Gretzky keep the record?

 

I mean, if he breaks the record with an empty net goal at age 43 when he's playing 8 minutes a night on the 4th line, is that really how he wants to go out?  is that really how he wants to break the record?

 

Considering his contract is up in a couple of years, I would question whether a team would even want him in a lesser role. That of course would depend on how he's playing at that point mind you. I guess a team wanting his leadership and star power might possibly give him a gander as well.

 

That being said, if he does rebound, Jagr was playing well into his 40's having both up and down years. He was even playing last year in the Czech league at the age of 50. Pavelski's another example of someone effectively saying "wait there's more!" lol

Edited December 19, 2023 by The Lock

[IBatch]

11 hours ago, The Lock said:

 

Considering his contract is up in a couple of years, I would question whether a team would even want him in a lesser role. That of course would depend on how he's playing at that point mind you. I guess a team wanting his leadership and star power might possibly give him a gander as well.

 

That being said, if he does rebound, Jagr was playing well into his 40's having both up and down years. He was even playing last year in the Czech league at the age of 50. Pavelski's another example of someone effectively saying "wait there's more!" lol

There have been a lot of stars, that could have kept playing in lesser roles, and already were to a degree (second line etc), but decided to pack it in rather then embarrass themselves.    Gretzky was still putting up points in the dead puck era, on a NYR team that was pretty bad his last season(s).     For every Joe Thornton, a guy who just didn't want to ever stop playing,  Rechhi,  you could find a dozen other guys that packed it in.   The Sedins for sure could have for sure kept going,  they had literally crap f!ck all to work with their final two seasons (ok Horvat and Brock as a rookie).   Bet they could still play now, or have at least played another short deal either with us or somewhere else.   Alfie packed it in.   Sakic broke most of his fingers in a snow blower.    We all know Sundin could have played several more years, we saw it first hand, and probably added 120-150 points as well.  

 

If Ovi ends up with 15 goals, and 30 points this year ... he should do the honourable thing and hang them up, especially with his paycheque. 

 

Personally appreciate both sides, guys who pack it in when they are still very good to decent players, and those that play for close to league min, chasing a cup (Spezza, Thornton).  

Edited December 19, 2023 by IBatch

[King Heffy]

13 hours ago, The Lock said:

 

Considering his contract is up in a couple of years, I would question whether a team would even want him in a lesser role. That of course would depend on how he's playing at that point mind you. I guess a team wanting his leadership and star power might possibly give him a gander as well.

 

That being said, if he does rebound, Jagr was playing well into his 40's having both up and down years. He was even playing last year in the Czech league at the age of 50. Pavelski's another example of someone effectively saying "wait there's more!" lol

You also have to wonder if a coach might healthy scratch him at this point.

[Integra250]

1 hour ago, King Heffy said:

You also have to wonder if a coach might healthy scratch him at this point.

Rookie coach won't have the balls to do that. This is a top down issue, either trade him with salary retention and see if he can get any assets back or give him the right supporting cast. Capitals are in the position we were years ago where the old superstars are declining but they don't want to let them go.

[King Heffy]

4 minutes ago, Integra250 said:

Rookie coach won't have the balls to do that. This is a top down issue, either trade him with salary retention and see if he can get any assets back or give him the right supporting cast. Capitals are in the position we were years ago where the old superstars are declining but they don't want to let them go.

Very possible that an experienced coach puts him in the press box if he's traded for and still doesn't produce though.  I'm pretty sure the Caps are the only team that's willing to keep gifting him ice time at this point.

[Master Mind]

Take with a grain of salt, but according to moneypuck, Ovie should have scored 6 more goals than he has by now.

 

That would put him at 11 goals, still a decline, but not as bad. That's a 32-goal pace, so maybe things will even out a bit and he'll get in the 25-goal range by season's end.

 

https://moneypuck.com/stats.htm

 

Also interestingly John Carlson leads the league in defensive zone giveaways, so maybe that's playing a factor here.

[Elias Pettersson]

2 hours ago, Master Mind said:

Take with a grain of salt, but according to moneypuck, Ovie should have scored 6 more goals than he has by now.

 

That would put him at 11 goals, still a decline, but not as bad. That's a 32-goal pace, so maybe things will even out a bit and he'll get in the 25-goal range by season's end.

 

https://moneypuck.com/stats.htm

 

Also interestingly John Carlson leads the league in defensive zone giveaways, so maybe that's playing a factor here.

Ovechkin’s shooting % this year is 4.8%. His career shooting % is 13%. That’s the main problem. He just can’t score anymore. His shot is gone.  He’s actually on pace for more shots this year than last year when he scored 42 goals. 
 

Father Time eventually catches up

to everyone. Ovi is no exception. The only question now is if he decides to pack it in or just go for the record by playing another 5-6 years on somebody’s 4th line. 

[The Lock]

15 hours ago, IBatch said:

There have been a lot of stars, that could have kept playing in lesser roles, and already were to a degree (second line etc), but decided to pack it in rather then embarrass themselves.    Gretzky was still putting up points in the dead puck era, on a NYR team that was pretty bad his last season(s).     For every Joe Thornton, a guy who just didn't want to ever stop playing,  Rechhi,  you could find a dozen other guys that packed it in.   The Sedins for sure could have for sure kept going,  they had literally crap f!ck all to work with their final two seasons (ok Horvat and Brock as a rookie).   Bet they could still play now, or have at least played another short deal either with us or somewhere else.   Alfie packed it in.   Sakic broke most of his fingers in a snow blower.    We all know Sundin could have played several more years, we saw it first hand, and probably added 120-150 points as well.  

 

If Ovi ends up with 15 goals, and 30 points this year ... he should do the honourable thing and hang them up, especially with his paycheque. 

 

Personally appreciate both sides, guys who pack it in when they are still very good to decent players, and those that play for close to league min, chasing a cup (Spezza, Thornton).  

 

And here I think he'd be a complete fool to give up that kind of money. lol

 

I look at it more of what would I do and don't see the point in expecting other people to follow a more "idealist" path. It's easy to expect others to want to give up money and call it "for the greater good", but that's also asking a lot from a player in my opinion. He deserves the respect to be able to choose his path without us "outside-looking-in" people telling him what to do.

Edited December 20, 2023 by The Lock

[The Lock]

13 hours ago, King Heffy said:

You also have to wonder if a coach might healthy scratch him at this point.

 

It's possible, but I'd also say it's unlikely. The ideal would be to fire him up somehow at this point to try and get more goals from him.

[Curmudgeon]

 

Washington is hooped if Ovechkin has reached the end of the trail, and with 5 goals so far this year he'll be lucky to score 20. I looked for what would happen if Ovechkin retired or was bought out. Makes no difference to the cap hit, which stays at $9.5M until the end of the 25/26 season. If he retires he is owed no more money BUT the cap hit remains. If he is bought out, he receives $16.6M and the cap hit remains. If I am Washington, I buy him out, take the hit and use whatever savings you get to improve the team now.

 

WHAT HAPPENS IF A PLAYER
ON A 35+ CONTRACT RETIRES?

If a player who is not on a 35+ contract retires, then his cap hit disappears. 

Previously, if any player on a multiyear 35+ contract retired, his cap hit remained. The 2020 changes to the CBA added conditions to the rule. Now, if a player who is on a 35+ contract retires, his cap hit will only remain in full if it is a multiyear deal, and:

1. The contract has signing bonuses beyond the first year, OR

2. The salary is front-loaded in the year-to-year breakdown

The cap hit also cannot be reduced via a buyout, and if a player on a 35+ contract is assigned to the minors beyond the first year of the contract it would only reduce his cap hit by $100,000.

An example of this is the five-year extension Alex Ovechkin recently signed with the Capitals. The salary is back-loaded, but there are signing bonuses beyond the first year. If Ovechkin retires before the contract expires, the Capitals will be stuck with the cap hit for the duration of the contract because of the signing bonuses

[Elias Pettersson]

Will Ovi ever score again? 

[NHLer]

12 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Will Ovi ever score again? 

 

That's the question I ask myself after a break up - Will I  ever score again???

[Elias Pettersson]

Ovi’s last 14 games:

 

Goals - 0

Shots - 51

 

Don’t think I’ve seen any superstar player fall this hard this fast. He had 42 goals last year. 
 

His shot is shot. I think he is done. 

[Alflives]

17 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Ovi’s last 14 games:

 

Goals - 0

Shots - 51

 

Don’t think I’ve seen any superstar player fall this hard this fast. He had 42 goals last year. 
 

His shot is shot. I think he is done. 

Love OV. But always got the impression he liked his vodka. H h RS burned himself out.,He’s cooked. 

[Bob Long]

8 hours ago, Curmudgeon said:

 

Washington is hooped if Ovechkin has reached the end of the trail, and with 5 goals so far this year he'll be lucky to score 20. I looked for what would happen if Ovechkin retired or was bought out. Makes no difference to the cap hit, which stays at $9.5M until the end of the 25/26 season. If he retires he is owed no more money BUT the cap hit remains. If he is bought out, he receives $16.6M and the cap hit remains. If I am Washington, I buy him out, take the hit and use whatever savings you get to improve the team now.

 

WHAT HAPPENS IF A PLAYER
ON A 35+ CONTRACT RETIRES?

If a player who is not on a 35+ contract retires, then his cap hit disappears. 

Previously, if any player on a multiyear 35+ contract retired, his cap hit remained. The 2020 changes to the CBA added conditions to the rule. Now, if a player who is on a 35+ contract retires, his cap hit will only remain in full if it is a multiyear deal, and:

1. The contract has signing bonuses beyond the first year, OR

2. The salary is front-loaded in the year-to-year breakdown

The cap hit also cannot be reduced via a buyout, and if a player on a 35+ contract is assigned to the minors beyond the first year of the contract it would only reduce his cap hit by $100,000.

An example of this is the five-year extension Alex Ovechkin recently signed with the Capitals. The salary is back-loaded, but there are signing bonuses beyond the first year. If Ovechkin retires before the contract expires, the Capitals will be stuck with the cap hit for the duration of the contract because of the signing bonuses

 

He'll find a way to get on robidas island.

[Elias Pettersson]

 

[IBatch]

7 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

 

Karma maybe.    Truly felt he'd break the record.    Starting to have doubts.   A lot easier to score goals if you don't have responsibilities down the middle of the ice.   It's not like his mates are chopped liver, but they aren't prime Backstrom or Ostrich either.   At least he owns a record that I doubt will ever be surpassed, shots on net.   He reminds me of Borque that way, just pounding the puck at every opportunity, instead of from the blue line, his special hash mark area.    Borque's shots per year were also elite for a D.    This is the first time, in Ovi's career, he's had to endure a bad situation as far as his team goes.  Was bound to happen.   Borque endured some bad times in Boston before he went to COL.    And 

Edited December 21, 2023 by IBatch

[IBatch]

On 12/20/2023 at 11:46 PM, Elias Pettersson said:

Ovi’s last 14 games:

 

Goals - 0

Shots - 51

 

Don’t think I’ve seen any superstar player fall this hard this fast. He had 42 goals last year. 
 

His shot is shot. I think he is done. 

Gretzky his final season?   At least he did the right thing and retired.    He did his best, but wasn't the same player.    And didn't have any sort of extras helping him either really.   Was too bad, he didn't play on a better team.   If he stayed a couple more seasons, when NYR loaded up massively, things might have ended better for him.  Jagr, Fluery,  Lindros, etc etc etc etc.  It was also fitting he retired in 99.   If only they used him in the shoot-out though in 98, truly think he would have scored against Hasek.     Gretzky also scored a beauty that year.   His last beauty. 

Edited December 23, 2023 by IBatch

[Elias Pettersson]

Ovi scored!!!  On a power play.  In overtime 4 on 3.  

[Sp3nny]

Over/under 30 goals for Ovi. Who’s taking what? I’m in the over camp. Anyone saying his shot is done, your shot is about the one thing you almost never lose. Al Maccinis just blasted 100.4mph at 56 yrs old when the Blues brought him out at the all star game in 2020. You can lose accuracy which will hurt, but Ovi has always been a volume shooter with the power to go through goalies.

 

He just went through the longest goal slump of his career, and his shooting % is way below average. People thought he was done the yr he scored 35 too. All this means is he only has regression to the averages in store, which means more goals in store. 

 

Has he lost a step and can’t get to scoring positions? I think so. And the Caps are also the worst they have been in a long time, without a proper playmaker to get him the puck as consistently. But as we have seen time and again, he can stand still in his spot on the PP and score 30 quite easily.

 

I still think he gets the record.

Edited December 25, 2023 by Sp3nny
Spelling

[Jaimito]

hope he never breaks Gretzky's record. 

Got no time for this Putin apologist.  j/k 

 

But I do want the record to stay with a Canadian.

I think Ovi's burnt out.  Looks slower every yr.  

[Dumb Nuck]

67

[Dumb Nuck]

On 12/21/2023 at 7:44 PM, Elias Pettersson said:

Ovi scored!!!  On a power play.  In overtime 4 on 3.  

Yes, but will Ovi ever score again? 

[Elias Pettersson]

1 hour ago, Dumb Nuck said:

Yes, but will Ovi ever score again? 

 

I'm going to start to rephrase the question.  Will Ovi ever score on 5 on 5 ever again...  

[Diamonds]

On 12/22/2023 at 10:19 AM, Sp3nny said:

Over/under 30 goals for Ovi. Who’s taking what? I’m easily in the over camp. Anyone saying his shot is done, your shot is about the one thing you almost never lose. Al Maccinis just blasted 100.4mph at 56 yrs old when the Blues brought him out at the all star game in 2020. You can lose accuracy which will hurt, but Ovi has always been a volume shooter with the power to go through goalies.

 

He just went through the longest goal slump of his career, and his shooting % is way below average. People thought he was done the yr he scored 35 too. All this means is he only has regression to the averages in store, which means more goals in store. 

 

Has he lost a step and can’t get to scoring positions? I think so. And the Caps are also the worst they have been in a long time, without a proper playmaker to get him the puck as consistently. But as we have seen time and again, he can stand still in his spot on the PP and score 30 quite easily.

 

I still think he gets the record.

I'm taking the under. I believe Ovi would have to score at around a 45 goal pace the rest of the season to crack 30. While that's not impossible for him to do, last season he had 42 and he's looked significantly older this season. I wouldn't be surprised to see Ovi pick up his pace a little bit and still get 20-25 goals, but 30+ is pushing it at this point.