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Just how good has Francis been?

Top 5 for Blue Jays, and top 5 in baseball on a few stats as well:

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/sports/mlb/blue-jays-pitcher-bowden-francis-just-had-a-month-for-the-ages/ar-AA1pJ50X?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=4b07055c2dd24a4e8293d5e875aba96b&ei=115

 

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Let’s start with the team historicals first: for every starting pitcher with at least five starts in a given month, Francis has the fifth lowest ERA of all-time at 1.05. (Hat tip to Stathead for all the data.)

Player Split Year ERA
Alek Manoah Sept/Oct 2022 0.88
Roger Clemens July 1997 0.89
Roger Clemens August 1998 0.9
Hyun Jin Ryu August 2020 0.96
Bowden Francis August 2024 1.05

He was bested only by Alek Manoah’s unreal 0.88 ERA in September/October in 2022, a pair of Roger Clemens months, and Hyun-Jin Ryu’s 0.96 ERA in 2020, which propelled the Blue Jays to a playoff spot.

Next is WHIP, which Francis leads by a wide margin over his next closest competition, Clemens and Halladay. I also forgot how R.A. Dickey was solid for the Blue Jays down the stretch in 2015 before he exploded in the ALCS against the Royals.

Player Split Year WHIP
Bowden Francis August 2024 0.408
Roger Clemens August 1998 0.700
Roy Halladay Sept/Oct 2003 0.706
Dave Stieb Sept/Oct 1988 0.738
R.A. Dickey Sept/Oct 2015 0.762

In opponent’s batting average, Francis’ August once again is the new franchise leader for Blue Jays starting pitchers in a single month. His .089 opponent batting average bested Dave Stieb’s .130 from September and October 1988.

The most surprising name on this list to me is Yariel Rodriguez, having the third-lowest opponent batting average in a single month from July of this year.

Player Split Year BA
Bowden Francis August 2024 .089
Dave Stieb Sept/Oct 1988 .130
Yariel Rodríguez July 2024 .132
Marco Estrada May 2016 .138
Roger Clemens August 1998 .144

And to tie into the franchise low for opponent batting average, it’s also no surprise Francis also has the fewest hits surrendered in a single month by a Blue Jays starter. He shares that honour with Wilmer Font. Yes, remember when Font was a thing in late 2019?

Player Split Year H
Wilmer Font August 2019 10
Yariel Rodríguez July 2024 10
Bowden Francis August 2024 10
Matt Shoemaker April/March 2019 16
Yusei Kikuchi May 2022 17

But let’s save the best for last, just to give some context to how impressive Francis pitched in August. He set a new MLB record for the lowest single-month WHIP for a starting pitcher making at least five starts in one month.

Player Split Year WHIP
Bowden Francis August 2024 0.408
Jacob deGrom June 2021 0.482
Frank Smith April/March 1909 0.511
Clayton Kershaw May 2016 0.524
Jesse Barnes July 1919 0.535

Among that list, two of the greatest starting pitchers of this era in Jacob deGrom and Clayton Kershaw, along with Frank Smith from 1909, who threw a league-leading 37 complete games, and Jesse Barnes from 1919, who won a National League-leading 25 games that year.

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a bit more at link.

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6 minutes ago, Gurn said:

Just how good has Francis been?

Top 5 for Blue Jays, and top 5 in baseball on a few stats as well:

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/sports/mlb/blue-jays-pitcher-bowden-francis-just-had-a-month-for-the-ages/ar-AA1pJ50X?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=4b07055c2dd24a4e8293d5e875aba96b&ei=115

 

-------

Let’s start with the team historicals first: for every starting pitcher with at least five starts in a given month, Francis has the fifth lowest ERA of all-time at 1.05. (Hat tip to Stathead for all the data.)

Player Split Year ERA
Alek Manoah Sept/Oct 2022 0.88
Roger Clemens July 1997 0.89
Roger Clemens August 1998 0.9
Hyun Jin Ryu August 2020 0.96
Bowden Francis August 2024 1.05

He was bested only by Alek Manoah’s unreal 0.88 ERA in September/October in 2022, a pair of Roger Clemens months, and Hyun-Jin Ryu’s 0.96 ERA in 2020, which propelled the Blue Jays to a playoff spot.

Next is WHIP, which Francis leads by a wide margin over his next closest competition, Clemens and Halladay. I also forgot how R.A. Dickey was solid for the Blue Jays down the stretch in 2015 before he exploded in the ALCS against the Royals.

Player Split Year WHIP
Bowden Francis August 2024 0.408
Roger Clemens August 1998 0.700
Roy Halladay Sept/Oct 2003 0.706
Dave Stieb Sept/Oct 1988 0.738
R.A. Dickey Sept/Oct 2015 0.762

In opponent’s batting average, Francis’ August once again is the new franchise leader for Blue Jays starting pitchers in a single month. His .089 opponent batting average bested Dave Stieb’s .130 from September and October 1988.

The most surprising name on this list to me is Yariel Rodriguez, having the third-lowest opponent batting average in a single month from July of this year.

Player Split Year BA
Bowden Francis August 2024 .089
Dave Stieb Sept/Oct 1988 .130
Yariel Rodríguez July 2024 .132
Marco Estrada May 2016 .138
Roger Clemens August 1998 .144

And to tie into the franchise low for opponent batting average, it’s also no surprise Francis also has the fewest hits surrendered in a single month by a Blue Jays starter. He shares that honour with Wilmer Font. Yes, remember when Font was a thing in late 2019?

Player Split Year H
Wilmer Font August 2019 10
Yariel Rodríguez July 2024 10
Bowden Francis August 2024 10
Matt Shoemaker April/March 2019 16
Yusei Kikuchi May 2022 17

But let’s save the best for last, just to give some context to how impressive Francis pitched in August. He set a new MLB record for the lowest single-month WHIP for a starting pitcher making at least five starts in one month.

Player Split Year WHIP
Bowden Francis August 2024 0.408
Jacob deGrom June 2021 0.482
Frank Smith April/March 1909 0.511
Clayton Kershaw May 2016 0.524
Jesse Barnes July 1919 0.535

Among that list, two of the greatest starting pitchers of this era in Jacob deGrom and Clayton Kershaw, along with Frank Smith from 1909, who threw a league-leading 37 complete games, and Jesse Barnes from 1919, who won a National League-leading 25 games that year.

-------------------------------------------------

a bit more at link.

Even all the analytics aside, watching him the last few starts, with the eye test… his splitter is DEALING. I haven’t seen a fastball with upper movement like that since Roger Clemens’ Forking  or possibly Doc’s Cutter. 
 

 I hope he’s finally arrived because that’s Ace or maybe #2 in rotation level of pitching. 

Edited by Northern_Nuck
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Jays currently following the ill advised path of the 2018-2022 Canucks (minus 2020) of going on late season runs to ruin draft position. Though I have to give credit for the job these kids are doing. 

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